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UPDATE 1-Double downturn unlikely, ECB's goal growth -Nowotny

Published 10/23/2009, 11:26 AM
Updated 10/23/2009, 11:30 AM

* Nowotny sees double dip recession as unlikely

* Benign inflation will allow ECB to focus on growth

* No major change expected to ECB staff forecasts

* Sramko says euro rise becoming a threat

(adds quotes, background, Sramko detail)

By Christian Gutlederer

VIENNA, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The euro zone is unlikely to see a double-dip recession, while benign inflation will allow the European Central Bank to focus on reinvigorating the economy, Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Friday.

Asked if the euro zone could slip back into recession again, if, as expected it returns to growth in the third quarter, Nowotny answered, "I don't see that, as the governments would apply new measures to counter it".

Despite recent upgrades at many commercial banks in recent weeks he added that ECB staff economic projections made in September still looked realistic, "I don't see major changes of the projections in December", he said.

Current ECB numbers see euro-zone growth of -0.5 to +0.8 percent for next year. Nowotny's comments appear slightly out of line with Luxembourg's central bank governor Yves Mersch, who said recently that they could be edged up..

Nowotny said inflation, which the ECB likes to keep just under 2 percent, was likely to pose little threat for the foreseeable future. "We in the ECB see that price stability is secured in the long term," he said, adding that reinvigorating growth was a key focus for the ECB.

Nowotny, who is also the head of Austria's central bank, sidestepped questions about the euro's ongoing rise against the dollar, instead echoing recent comments from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet that the ECB was not campaigning for the euro to become a global reserve currency.

The euro has climbed roughly 20 percent against the dollar since March and ECB policymakers and politicians are now beginning to voice concerns that the rise could hit exporters and damage the region's fragile recovery process.

Slovakian central bank Governor, Ivan Sramko, voiced his worries. "The dollar is currently weak... The trend is clear and apparent, the strong euro can start causing problems to the euro zone," Sramko told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.

"It is needed to coordinate activities in the exchange rate area more."

The euro was a tad above the psychological $1.50 mark at 1415 GMT. On Monday, the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet repeated that he had no reason to doubt statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that a strong dollar was in U.S. interests.

POSITIVE SIGNALS

Sramko added that there were positive signals in the economy but that the ongoing uncertainty was reflected in the ECB's policy stance.

"Risks to the economic development still exist, but there are positive signals ... In this light we consider monetary policy settings as appropriate," Sramko said.

He said that non-standard measures taken by the bank to boost liquidity could stretch beyond this year. "This cannot be ruled-out, it is absolutely open," he said.

"It will depend on how we will evaluate the situation, and on expectations of further development."

The ECB aims to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent. It kept interest rates at a record low of 1 percent this month but has been pumping billions of euros at banks to try and shore up lending and confidence in the financial system over the last year.

Nowotny repeated a now well-used phrase among policymakers, that it would be premature to remove support measures at the moment, although he called for the planning process to start.

"The economic situation needs to be observed very carefully," he told reporters. "There is broad agreement it would be now premature to start with an exit strategy. But it s clear that central banks have to discuss strategies how to do this."

New French data brought more welcome news as consumer spending showed a surprisingly strong jump, while news that Spanish unemployment remained at almost 18 percent was not as dramatic as feared. (Additional reporting by Martin Santa in Smolenice, Slovakia) (Reporting by Christian Gutlederer, writing by Marc Jones, editing by Victoria Main)

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