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UPDATE 1-Czech Q2 growth surprises, ending recession

Published 08/14/2009, 04:42 AM
Updated 08/14/2009, 04:48 AM
EUR/CZK
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TTEF
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* Czech economy ends half a year of recession

* Czech GDP up 0.3 pct in Q2, market expected -0.4 pct

* Year-on-year drop still the worst on record, -4.9 pct

* INSTANT VIEW [ID:nLE643038]

(Adds background, comment, market reaction)

By Jan Lopatka

PRAGUE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The Czech economy surprisingly rebounded in the second quarter, following signs of recovery in western Europe but analysts warned feeble household spending would delay any strong recovery.

The Czech Statistical Bureau said on Friday the economy grew 0.3 percent from the previous three months -- ending half a year of recession -- despite predictions of a 0.4 percent decline.

Total output of goods and services in the central European economy still contracted by record 4.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, the Czech Statistical Bureau said, worse than expected by the market.

The good quarterly result followed positive surprises from France and especially Germany -- the key market for Czech exports.

"The German economy found a floor... it means that the Czech economy found a floor probably not much later than Germany," said Miroslav Plojhar, EMEA economist at JP Morgan.

"If it (proves) that the German economy is rebounding, then the Czech economy will not lag that rebound."

But analysts said that domestic demand would suffer due to rising unemployment and hopes for a robust turnaround may be too rosy.

"We will have to wait for a few more quarters before we can rely on household consumption," said Helena Horska, an analyst at Raiffeisenbank. "Growing unemployment is holding spending back and it will take some time before companies start hiring again -- roughly in the middle of 2010."

The concern about regional growth reflected poor results from other central and east European countries. Hungary reported a 7.6 percent year-on-year drop for the second quarter, while the Romanian economy shrank by 8.8 percent and Slovakia's by 5.3 percent. [ID:nnLD517467]

Analysts questioned the discrepancy between the better-than-expected Czech quarterly and worse year-on-year figure, and the statistical bureau confirmed it had made revisions to both 2008 and first quarter 2009 data that distorted the comparative bases.

"We included information that we did not have in the spring about 2008 and that we of course did not have about the first quarter," Jan Heller, CSU's head of quarterly national accounts department, told Reuters.

He said the revisions were not yet complete and therefore they would be released together with final second quarter GDP data due out on Sept. 8.

The crown currency did not show any visible reaction to the data, trading a touch firmer at 25.79 to the euro at 0809 GMT from 25.805 ahead of the data. (Editing by Andy Bruce)

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