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SHANGHAI, Dec 22 (Reuters) - China's exports are expected to rise about 6 percent next year, recovering from a global slump, while the country's imports are likely to rise 11 percent in 2010, a key Chinese government think-tank said on Tuesday.
China is likely to record a trade surplus of about $184 billion in 2010, down 15.5 percent from this year, the State Information Centre said in the report published in the official China Securities News.
The think-tank warned that the yuan
"Looking into 2010, the global economy will experience a slow and tortuous recovery, and our country's external trade will have a recovery in growth," said the report.
But it also warned that feeble consumer demand in Europe and the United States, trade protectionism and pressure for China's yuan currency to appreciate could all "obstruct improvement in external trade."
The report came after recent data showed a recovery in Chinese trade, with import growth outpacing still sluggish exports.
China's imports jumped 26.7 percent in November from a year earlier, ending the 12-month streak of declines and beating expectations of a 20 percent increase. Exports were down 1.2 percent from a year earlier, after a 13.8 percent fall in October. [ID:nTOE5B90AF]
The new report also suggested that stronger consumer demand could also boost Chinese growth in 2010.
China's retail sales are projected to grow 18.5 percent in 2010, with the nominal growth rate being up 3.2 percentage points from 2009, as domestic consumption would contribute more to China's economic growth, the think-tank said.
"With appropriate policy guidance, there is enormous potential for eliciting growth in consumer demand," it said.
(Reporting by Lu Jianxin and Edmund Klamann in Shanghai and Chris Buckley in Beijing; Editing by Ken Wills)