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UPDATE 1-China says export recovery not guaranteed

Published 07/21/2009, 08:33 AM
Updated 07/21/2009, 08:40 AM

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SINGAPORE, July 21 (Reuters) - China, leading world hopes for economic growth, said on Tuesday its export recovery this year cannot be fully guaranteed.

"I cannot entirely guarantee it," said Commerce Minister Chen Deming, when asked about an Chinese export recovery, after talks with Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) trade ministers in Singapore.

Some trade officials at the meeting have expressed cautious optimism about a recovery in their country's exports, traditionally a vital driver of economic growth in Asia.

China's economic growth accelerated to 7.9 percent in the second quarter, from 6.1 percent in the first quarter, as investment driven by government stimulus offset falling exports.

Data showed earlier this month June exports fell by 21.4 percent from a year earlier, an improvement on May's slide of 26.4 percent.

The pace decline in imports have slowed sharply last month as the government's massive infrastructure spending sucked in commodities and other goods from the rest of the world.

As a result of lower exports, China's trade surplus would fall this year, in line with market expectations, Chen said.

A recent Reuters poll forecast China's trade surplus would narrow to $230 billion this year from $295.5 billion in 2008 before rebounding to $253.5 billion in 2010. (Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Kazunori Takada)

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