UPDATE 1-Capital inflows pose risk to Asian economies-IMF

Published 10/21/2010, 06:09 AM
Updated 10/21/2010, 06:12 AM

* IMF says inflows to Asia pose risk to financial stability

* Asia may need monetary tightening, further fx appreciation

* IMF: Asia econ growth to settle to more sustainable pace (Updates with comments, changes dateline)

JAKARTA, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Strong capital inflows into Asia combined with easy monetary policy conditions may pose risks to the region's financial stability, meaning further policy tightening or currency gains may be needed, the IMF said on Thursday.

The comments in the International Monetary Fund's latest economic outlook for the Asia-Pacific come after a surprise interest rate hike by China this week and recent interventions by Japan, South Korea and other countries to stem their surging currencies.

"Macroprudential measures have appropriately been taken in many regional economies to minimize these risks, but a further tightening of monetary policy conditions may be needed, including through greater exchange rate appreciation," the report said.

"A faster withdrawal of fiscal stimulus would also help guard against the risks of overheating and a buildup of financial imbalances."

Ample global liquidity and the relatively robust growth and low public debt in Asia should continue to fuel capital flows to the region, the IMF said, as depressed interest rates and sluggish growth in the West prompt investors to seek higher yields elsewhere.

The inflows have pushed the yen up 14 percent against the dollar so far this year and the Thai baht up 11 percent despite policymakers' attempts to slow their climb.

Foreign exchange movements, including the relatively slight gain of over 2 percent in China's yuan , is likely to be a key topic for a G20 finance meeting in South Korea this week, as the U.S. pushes Beijing for faster appreciation. [ID:nTOE69K01G]

Anoop Singh, a director at the IMF's Asia and Pacific department, said Asia needed to tackle the short-term effects of capital inflows leading to excess liquidity, while channeling them to infrastructure and other investments in the long-run.

"Asia has comprehensive tools to tackle short term (effects). Asia has room for further measures," said Singh at a news conference in Jakarta.

Indonesia, one of the few countries in the region to leave its interest rates on hold this year after slashing them during the financial crisis, announced measures last month to soak up liquidity by lifting bank's reserve requirements.

Thailand has been wary of imposing controls on inflows after measures in 2006 led to a slide in its stock market, though Brazil has taken aggressive action such as raising a tax on bond purchases by foreigners to curb a rally in the real .

SLOWING PACE

The recent gains in the yen, hurting the nation's exporters, may signal lower GDP and export growth for Japan, the IMF said in the report.

Economic growth rates for much of the rest of Asia, meanwhile, are expected to settle into a more sustainable pace.

"During the second half of 2010, economic activity has moderated toward a more sustainable pace, although it remains robust," its report said.

"In particular, industrial production and export growth rates have started to moderate."

Japan's government said on Tuesday that the economy was now at a standstill, adding that futher pressure could tip it back into recession. [ID:nTOE69I06J]

Overall GDP growth in Asia is seen at 8 percent in 2010, before moderating slightly to 7 percent in 2011, the IMF forecast. Both projections are an upward revision of nearly 1 percentage point from April estimates.

"A notable aspect of the outlook is that the large, domestic-demand-driven economies -- China, India, and Indonesia -- are set to grow particularly rapidly."

China's economy is projected to grow 10.5 percent this year and 9.50 percent in 2011, but led by more domestic consumption, while India is seen expanding by 9.75 percent this year and 8.5 percent in 201l.

"Should global conditions worsen, however, the region has the room to delay the normalisation of policy stances," the IMF said. (Reporting by Aditya Suharmoko and Adriana Nina Kusuma in Jakarta and Ed Lane in Gyeongju; Writing by Neil Chatterjee; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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