UPDATE 2-Brazil c.bank sees recovery complicated by U.S., Europe

Published 11/30/2010, 04:43 AM
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* Recovery complicated by U.S., Europe economies

* Incoming govt to largely maintain previous policies

* To keep inflation in check

(Adds quotes and details)

By James Pomfret

HONG KONG, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, expects a more complicated recovery due to uncertainties in U.S. and European economies, the country's deputy central bank governor, Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, said on Tuesday.

"We are living now in a more complicated period for recovery out of the crisis," da Silva told a Hong Kong business forum.

Da Silva noted the complex external environment from Europe's debt woes and waves of hot money bursting into emerging markets from the U.S. -- were giving rise to an "impossible trinity" of macro-economic challenges for many emerging market economies like Brazil, in keeping capital accounts open, preserving monetary independence and keeping exchange rates stable.

"It appears the situation is unresolved of capital inflows ... playing a greater role in setting rates than fundamentals."

Brazil, whose economy and per capital GDP has galloped over the past decade on strong export and investment growth, is now facing rising consumer prices and inflation expectations that are turning up the heat on Brazil's central bank for an interest rate hike to bring inflation back to the middle of the target range.

"The current cycle is producing some increase in observed inflation and expectations" said da Silva, who largely avoided direct comment on interest rates except to say authorities would "carefully observe" the situation.

"The pragmatic approach for many emerging markets and Brazil is using, is to keep inflation in check using demand management tools and at the same time use macro-prudential tools to avoid excessive credit growth," added the former World Bank economist.

The central bank next week is expected to adapt its language to open the way for raising its Selic interest rate, which is now at 10.75 percent , one of the world's highest.

On Brazil's incoming government, led by President-elect Dilma Rousseff, which has the tricky task of prolonging Brazil's golden economic run, he said Brazil would largely maintain the macro-economic framework and sound policies of the previous administration, though these would be "fine tuned" as necessary.

On the fiscal side, Da Silva noted a need to bolster domestic savings rates to feed higher levels of investment as well as improving the quality of public spending to bolster efficiences.

The incoming Roussef administration has spoken of making "substantial" and lasting budget cuts, a move that analysts say could assuage some pressure for higher interest rates.

The deputy central bank governor spoke in place of out-going boss Henrique Meirelles, the longest serving central bank president in Brazilian history. Meirelles will be replaced by a veteran central bank staffer, Alexandre Tombini.

(Reporting by James Pomfret; Editing by Ken Wills)

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