Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

UPDATE 1-BoE unanimous on May policy, split on CPI outlook

Published 05/19/2010, 05:17 AM
Updated 05/19/2010, 05:20 AM

* BoE May MPC decision unanimous, as expected

* "Range of views" on price pressures and spare capacity

* UK fiscal outlook, euro zone woes add to uncertainty

By David Milliken and Christina Fincher

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to make no changes to its ultra-loose policy stance this month, but some members thought the Bank's latest inflation forecast was too optimistic.

Minutes of the central bank's May 7-10 meeting showed there was "a range of views" among MPC members regarding the margin of spare capacity and the strength of its influence on inflation.

Although economic data had evolved broadly as the MPC expected over the past three months, May's decision was framed by uncertainty stemming from developments in the euro zone and the unclear path of Britain's fiscal tightening.

The MPC met just after Britain's inconclusive May 6 election, and before a coalition was formed between the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties, which have since pledged to accelerate the pace of fiscal tightening.

"It was too early to assess with confidence the overall impact of recent developments on the medium-term outlook. Some of the present uncertainties should be reduced by the time of future meetings," the minutes said.

BoE members voted 9-0 to keep interest rates at 0.5 percent, where they have been since March 2009, and to maintain the 200 billion pound stock of assets purchased under the Bank's quantitative easing policy.

The minutes noted that near-term inflation prospects had risen -- a view also shown in the May 12 Inflation Report -- but that spare capacity should continue to reduce price pressures in the medium term, despite some signs they were currently rising.

"Some members interpreted recent developments in firms' costs and pricing behaviour as potentially suggesting that the dampening effect on inflation from the margin of spare capacity might be somewhat weaker than assumed in the May central projection," the minutes said.

Consumer price inflation unexpectedly hit a 17-month high of 3.7 percent in April, figures released on Tuesday showed, forcing BoE Governor Mervyn King to write a public letter explaining why CPI had stayed so far above its 2 percent target for so long.

Other MPC members placed more weight on downside risks to growth and inflation from the continued reluctance of banks to lend and financial turmoil in the euro zone.

Economists saw little that was surprising in the minutes, but noted an ongoing tussle on the 9-member committee about the impact of spare capacity, which the central bank is relying on to bring down inflation without the need for interest rate rises.

"There's still evidence of divisions," said Ross Walker, economist at RBS. "They're nuancing a little bit this output gap analysis, which clearly they've got to do in the light of inflation data, but overall there's still a slightly dovish bias there."

Money markets show that most investors do not expect the BoE to raise interest rates before early 2011.

At the time of the MPC meeting, committee members said it was too early to tell how big an impact tensions on euro zone government debt markets would have on Britain's economy, since it was possible that the creation a $1 trillion EU/IMF bailout fund could restore market confidence.

"The only lasting effect of recent developments on UK economic prospects could come about from accelerated fiscal adjustment in the euro area," the minutes stated.

The BoE said that as of May 10, the pace of fiscal consolidation in Britain was uncertain and "would need to be sensitive to sustaining market confidence".

King welcomed the coalition's plans to reduce the budget deficit faster in a news conference on May 12. (Reporting by David Milliken and Christina Fincher; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.