🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

UPDATE 1-BoE's Sentance says UK moving into recovery phase

Published 11/16/2009, 03:02 PM
Updated 11/16/2009, 03:06 PM

* Recent UK and global economic news "very positive"

* Latest BoE forecasts show risk of overly loose policy

* Impact of QE on private-sector spending still to come

* Weak sterling helping growth, economic rebalancing

* Speech text: http://r.reuters.com/xyf89f (Adds comments on policy, forex from Q&A session)

By David Milliken

EGHAM, England, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Britain's economy is moving towards recovery and the Bank of England's latest forecasts show the risk of keeping monetary policy too loose for too long, BoE policymaker Andrew Sentance said on Monday.

Sentance played down official data showing the economy contracted in the third quarter. Other major indicators suggested an imminent recovery, Sentance said in remarks at a public lecture at Royal Holloway college, part of the University of London.

The OECD's leading indicator for Britain had pointed to a resumption of growth since the first half of this year, and with even more vigour than it did after the recession of the early 1990s, he said.

"It might be argued that this leading indicator is forward-looking, which contrasts with the GDP figures which look back to the past quarter," he said, noting initial gross domestic product estimates were frequently revised and particularly unreliable at turning points in the cycle.

Sentance said his confidence in a recovery was based on evidence of a global upturn, more positive business surveys, a recovery in consumer confidence and signs the labour market is starting to stabilise, though downside risks did still remain.

Moreover, a synchronised recovery could put strong upward pressure on world energy and commodity prices, and Britain's economy would need to adjust to a period of much weaker government spending.

"The main rebalancing challenge for the UK economy as it emerges from recession is between the public and private sectors rather than the external balance," he said.

FISCAL CHALLENGE

Sentance said Britain did not stand out as a country with a major external imbalance -- and sterling's fall over the past two years would help exporters -- but it did stand out as one of the major countries with the largest public sector deficits.

"Cutting the government deficit will be a major challenge for the British economy as we move through the coming recovery phase of the economic cycle," he said. Sentance said it was likely to take five years or more to get the fiscal deficit down to more comfortable proportions.

However, "as we saw in the 1990s, a sustained fiscal tightening need not jeopardise the prospects for economic growth if there is sufficient support for demand from the global economy, a competitive exchange rate and a recovery in private sector spending," he said.

"The current stand of monetary policy is, I believe, very supportive of private sector spending."

Sentance stressed the Bank of England no longer engineered sterling weakness and left the level of the currency up to markets, when asked about sterling's fall in a public question and answer session after his speech.

"The Monetary Policy Committee certainly doesn't take decisions to devalue the pound. That was true in the 1960s, but (now) it's the markets that are setting the value of sterling in trading activities," he said.

Sentance added that the economy had yet to benefit fully from unprecedented monetary stimulus from the past year.

He said the full impact from the cuts in Bank rate -- from 5.0 percent in October to 0.5 percent in March -- were only just coming through in the data, and the lags for quantitative easing were potentially longer and less predictable.

"We have yet to see the potentially significant impact that quantitative easing could have on spending by households and firms, though the financial market effects we have seen so far do suggest that it is feeding through into asset prices and helping to ease funding conditions for businesses."

Sentance said over the months ahead the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee would need to assess whether the signs of recovery were sufficiently well-established to remove the need for further stimulus from additional money injections.

The central bank's quarterly projections last week showed inflation moving above target beyond a two-year horizon if policy remained unchanged.

"As we look further out, therefore, the Inflation Report projections are highlighting the risk of keeping policy too loose for too long," he said.

Asked if it would have done any harm for the MPC to have halted quantitative easing this month, Sentance said the committee's view would be made clearer in its minutes, due for release on Wednesday.

"There will come a point when the recovery is sufficiently well developed and well established and we feel that the economy does not need additional stimulus," he said.

"The initial step when we see the recovery beginning to gather momentum would be to stop adding to stimulus. Then further down the track we may want to tighten policy," he added. "We signposted through our November decision that we'll looking to make our next major decision on quantitative easing in conjunction with the February Inflation Report. (Editing by Ruth Pitchford and Kenneth Barry)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.