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UPDATE 1-BoE's Posen: We will do more QE if we have to

Published 02/24/2010, 07:34 AM
Updated 02/24/2010, 07:52 AM

* Posen echoes BoE governor's remarks on QE

* Don't bet on high inflation, he tells investors

By Fiona Shaikh

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will expand its quantitative easing programme again if necessary, central bank policymaker Adam Posen said on Wednesday.

His comments are in line with those of BoE Governor Mervyn King and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee who have made it clear that, while their 200 billion pound asset purchase scheme has been put on hold, the door is open for more.

"If we have to, we will," Posen said in an interview with Reuters Insider television.

King told lawmakers on Tuesday that more QE, where the BoE buys mostly British government bonds with newly-created money to boost demand, may be needed if the economy remains weak. [ID:nLDE61M1SA]

Britain's economy has just emerged from an 18-month recession, growing only 0.1 percent in the final three months of last year and policymakers have said further quarters of contraction could be on the cards.

Earlier this month, the BoE forecast inflation well below its two percent target on the central bank's two-year forecasting horizon based on market expectations of interest rates, and after an initial but temporary price spike this year.

That outlook implies rates may need to stay at the record low of 0.5 percent for longer than the market had been thinking or that further QE may be needed to boost the economy and get inflation back on track.

"Any of you betting on high inflation in major economies, including the UK, will lose money," Posen said.

However, he warned policymakers to take heed of past mistakes in estimating just how much support the economy may need so that they didn't drive up inflation.

"The biggest mistake of the 1970s was that central bankers overestimated the output gap repeatedly," he said.

Posen said one way to control inflation was to encourage investment in inflation-protected bonds.

"If you look at countries with linker bonds, they are the ones with the best inflation records over the last 20 years," he said. "The BoE and most central banks are eager to have TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) and other inflation-linked bonds because it's a disciplining device."

He later told reporters that the pound, which weakened during the financial crisis, had now stabilised.

"The pound has been stable since early 2009 ... and I think there is no reason to think it will move beyond that," he said.

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