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UPDATE 1-Bank of Canada warns against complacency

Published 09/28/2009, 03:47 PM
Updated 09/28/2009, 03:51 PM
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* Carney says recovery largely policy-induced

* Repeats warning that strong currency could harm recovery

* Exports may not be reliable engine for growth (Adds detail)

VICTORIA, British Columbia, Sept 28 (Reuters) - When Canada's two-year fiscal stimulus package runs out, the onus will be on consumers and businesses to step up spending in order to keep the economic recovery alive, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said on Monday.

In the prepared text of a speech he was delivering in Victoria, British Columbia, Carney said the global economic recovery was largely due to massive spending by governments around the world and rock-bottom interest rates as well as extraordinary lending by central banks.

In Canada, some factors helping to lift the economy are temporary, such as an expected doubling of auto production in the third quarter, which he said simply reflected the restarting of plants that had been shut down at the height of the crisis.

"Initial success should not give way to complacency," he said.

"As we go forward, it will be important to distinguish between policy-induced growth in the near term, private-demand momentum in the medium term, and the global economy's ability to respond to the longer-term challenges that this crisis has exposed."

Carney repeated a warning on the rising Canadian dollar that was not much different from the bank's previous comments on the currency. He said the possibility of persistent strength in the currency would offset the economic improvements. He allowed, though, that some of the currency strength was justified by higher commodity prices and improved economic conditions.

"Other things being equal, a persistently strong Canadian dollar would reduce real growth and delay the return of inflation to target," he said.

Carney warned that Canada's traditional reliance on exports "might not be reliable as the sole engine of growth" during recovery and suggested domestic spending would need to drive growth.

He upheld the bank's conditional pledge to hold interest rates unchanged at their record low of 0.25 percent until the end of June next year.

He also said any long-term resolution of global imbalances would require countries like China to make real adjustments to their exchange rates.

"Surplus countries that need to boost domestic demand, such as China, will require a comprehensive program of structural reforms. ... They must also be complemented by material adjustments to the real exchange rates of deficit and surplus countries." (Reporting by Allan Dowd; Writing by Louise Egan and Randall Palmer; Editing by Frank McGurty)

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