* RBA minutes show emphasis shifting to inflation
* Keeping rates low for long could create imbalances-RBA
* Q3 CPI data on Oct. 28 could decide 50 bps hike in Nov
* Aussie jumps to fresh 14-mth highs, 1-yr swaps rise
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank has identified inflation as its major concern in deciding to raise interest rates this month from emergency lows, boosting the local currency and keeping alive chances of a steep hike next month.
Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Oct. 6 policy meeting showed on Tuesday that board members felt it could be "imprudent" to maintain a very expansionary interest rate.
The Australian dollar rose to a fresh 14-month highs while
one-year swap rates
At the meeting, the central bank raised its key cash rate to 3.25 percent from a record low of 3.0 percent, surprised many economists and highlighting the resilience of the local economy.
The RBA also indicated it would raise rates further, leading markets to price in at least two rate hikes before year-end. This month, it became the first central bank among the Group of 20 to raise rates since signs of global recovery emerged.
"Overall, if nothing else, these comments confirm our view that the RBA is going to move to 4.25 percent quite quickly, by early March next year," said Scott Haslem, chief economist at UBS.
"The comments reinforce our view that they will probably lift rates 25 basis points at both the November and December meetings, and today's minutes certainly don't reduce the risk the RBA may go 50 basis points in November."
The RBA minutes noted that downside risks to the domestic economy had diminished significantly over recent months and keeping rates low for long could create economic imbalances.
"Keeping interest rates at very lows levels for an extended period could threaten the achievement of the inflation target over the medium term," the minutes said.
Last week, Governor Glenn Stevens said he would not be timid in removing some of the monetary stimulus put in place to help the economy ward off the worst of the global financial crisis.
He added that the cash rate would be raised to a normal setting over time.
ALL EYES ON INFLATION
The RBA aims to keep inflation in a 2-3 percent band, but second-quarter underlying consumer prices were 3.9 percent higher than a year ago.
The market is now focused on the third-quarter inflation
report, due on Oct. 28. An upside surprise could see investors
increase bets on a 50 basis point hike in November
"If inflation surprises to the upside there is a material risk that the RBA will front-load the return to neutral cash rates sooner rather than later," said Annette Beacher, senior strategist at TD Securities, Singapore. "The calls for a 50 basis points hike on Nov. 3 will accelerate, including by us."
Beacher expects RBA's preferred core measures -- the trimmed mean and weighted median -- to rise by 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, leaving it 3.5 percent higher from a year earlier. That would still be above the RBA's targeted band.
The RBA board noted underlying inflation was above target and was likely to bottom out at a level higher than earlier thought.
"The forecast trough in inflation was not as low as previously expected, and by 2011 inflation could be rising again," the minutes showed.
The board also noted that growth was expected to be around trend in 2010 and subsequently strengthen, helped mainly by its strong ties to Asia. Trend growth is considered around 3 percent. (Editing by Mark Bendeich)