* Sees Russia's NPLs at 20 percent in 2009, 25 percent in 2010
* Worried on quasi-sovereign debt may become government debt
* Russia to survive if rouble weakens by 20 percent
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MOSCOW, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Rise in Russia's quasi-sovereign debt and bad loans at the country's banks pose a concern, although Russia is likely to keep its investment grade rating, Moody's rating agency said on Thursday.
Moody's reiterated its earlier forecast that bad loans at Russian banks would rise to 20 percent of the total portfolio this year and to 25 percent in 2010, adding that current provisions were lower than needed.
Additionally, the rise in quasi-sovereign debt is worrisome, as the debt could potentially become Russian government's debt, Jonathan Schiffer, lead analyst for Russia at Moody's Investors Service, told a conference in Moscow.
"That means quasi-sovereign debt of companies such as Gazprom and Sberbank," Schiffer said.
With general government debt forecast for $95 billion at end-2009, the external debt of quasi-sovereign banks and corporations at mid-2009 was $50 and $86 billion respectively, according to Moody's estimates.
Russian banks are struggling with losses as provisions for non-performing loans (NPLs) consume almost all of their profits.
But officials and top-banks, including Russia's No.2 lender VTB, have said the worst is over and expect signs of improvement in the second half of the year.
Moody's said the number of loss-making banks would continue to rise and the overall banking sector profitability will remain low until 2011, while the credit portfolio would rise by 10 percent in 2010, mainly at state banks.
The Russian central bank on Thursday cut the benchmark refinancing rate to 9.50 percent in order to stimulate lending activity of the banking sector.
Russia is suffering the first contraction in a decade and the government sees increasing of lending as the key condition to boost economic growth.
CLOSE WATCH ON RESERVES
Russia could cope if the rouble, which depends heavily on the oil prices were to weaken by 20 percent from current levels .
But the country's reserves, which at Oct. 23 stood at $429.3 billion, can be significantly depleted, Schiffer said.
"If they fall and debt level will rise -- we will be carefully watching," he said. "Factors working to Russia's advantage are diminishing, oil funds will be exhausted."
The agency also said it still saw risks of a run on banks if big lenders experienced problems or if the rouble came under new depreciation pressure.
Moody's rates Russia 'Baa1' with a 'stable' outlook and -- unlike rival agencies S&P and Fitch -- did not downgrade the sovereign during the current economic crisis. "We forecast that in the nearest future Russia's rating will remain in this range... (it) won't rise to A3 but won't fall to Baa2," Schiffer said.
(Reporting by Oksana Kobzeva; Writing by Lidia Kelly and Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Dmitry Sergeyev/Victoria Main)