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Trade volumes rise sharply in 3rd qtr - Dutch CPB

Published 11/27/2009, 09:47 AM
Updated 11/27/2009, 09:51 AM

* Trade volumes bounce back in 3rd qtr after summer upturn

* Long-term trend remains negative

GENEVA, Nov 27 (Reuters) - World trade volumes grew sharply in the third quarter of this year, data from the Dutch CPB research institute showed on Friday, in a further sign that the global economy is pulling out of crisis.

CPB said trade volumes in the third quarter were 4.3 percent higher than in the second -- the second biggest quarter-on-quarter increase since it started tracking trade flows in 1991, and contrasting with a record 12.3 percent drop in the three months ended February.

The turning point appears to have been this summer, when trade in the three months ended July turned positive on a quarter-on-quarter basis for the first time since May last year, the institute said in its latest World Trade Monitor.

Looking at volatile monthly figures, trade in September grew by a record 5.3 percent after falling 1.5 percent in August, reflecting higher exports and imports in all regions, said the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Analysis, whose data are used by the European Commission and World Bank.

But the long-term trend remains negative, with average volumes in the 12 months ended August showing a record 14.4 percent drop compared with the previous 12 months.

The World Trade Organisation has forecast that trade will contract by more than 10 percent this year -- the biggest drop since the Great Depression. (Reporting by Jonathan Lynn) ((For full monitor go to http://link.reuters.com/beq73g)) ((jonathan.lynn@reuters.com; +41 22 733 3831; Reuters Messaging: jonathan.lynn.reuters.com@reuters.net ))

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