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TOPWRAP 5-Grim world data stacks up against hopeful Obama

Published 02/25/2009, 01:06 PM
Updated 02/25/2009, 01:08 PM

* U.S. January home sales at slowest pace since July 1997

* Japan exports fall, German economy slides at record pace

* S&P says more sovereign downgrades than upgrades in 2009

* U.S. stocks fall nearly 2 pct (For more on the financial crisis, click [nCRISIS])

By Daniel Bases

NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - News of plunging exports hit Japan and Germany, while home sales fell in the United States, painting a grim economic picture on Wednesday, the day after President Barack Obama offered assurances the United States would emerge strengthened from the financial crisis.

U.S. stocks fell on disappointment that Obama's speech, his first major address to Congress, lacked details of his plan to rebuild the U.S. economy. Obama's budget proposal, scheduled to be on Thursday, should provide a fuller picture.

In a second day of testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke eased concerns that U.S. banks would be nationalized but reiterated a warning the U.S. recession could drag into next year without government intervention. For details, see [ID:nN25471427].

Bernanke's suggestion to lawmakers on Tuesday that big banks would survive the downturn without being nationalized helped to snap a six-day losing streak in U.S. stocks.

"There was a little bit of an overshoot to the upside yesterday and we're just giving some of that back early as President Obama didn't have anything substantive to say last night," said Michael James, senior trader at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

Egged on by the latest U.S. housing data, investors pushed U.S. stocks down, helping to send share prices in Europe lower as well. [ID:nN25480760]. U.S. sales of existing homes last month dropped to the slowest pace since July 1997.

The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index fell more than 2 percent in late morning U.S. trade.

Adding evidence of the deepening global recession, Standard & Poor's downgraded hard-hit Ukraine and warned that there are likely going to be more sovereign downgrades than upgrades this year versus 2008 due to the global recession. [ID:nLP353568]

EXPORTS EVAPORATE

The U.S. housing market rout cut off the cash flow for U.S. consumers and the effects are being felt globally.

Plunging global exports drove Japan's trade deficit to a record 952.6 billion yen ($9.82 billion) and caused a sharp economic contraction in Germany.

Japan's exports fell by 45.7 percent to hit a 10-year low in value, hit by slumping demand for cars and electronics.

"Exports to Asia, particularly to China, are tumbling at about the same pace as shipments to the United States, signalling that even China's economy may be shrinking," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

One bright spot for Japan was a report in the Nikkei newspaper, which said the government is considering using public funds to buy stocks directly from the market. The Nikkei stock market gained 2.65 percent, shrugging off the export data.

Germany's economy, Europe's largest, contracted a record 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, its worst performance since reunification in 1990. Plunging exports were to blame.

Britain's economy shrank an unrevised 1.5 percent in the same period. [ID:nLP311970]

Aiming to stabilise rapidly slowing economies, governments continue to offer stimulus and even direct investment in major lenders, while reforming oversight to instill greater market confidence.

A report delivered to the European Commission on Wednesday said financial sector oversight across the European Union was in need of urgent repair. [ID:nLP384492]

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told reporters concrete proposals would be presented in April covering private equity, hedge funds and remuneration schemes.

Regulators around the world are under pressure to tighten supervision of financial firms and products and face blame for failing to prevent the global crisis or to restore sufficient confidence in its wake.

The 27-nation EU needs to balance the need to better coordinate regulation with concerns in some member states that centralised oversight will leave them powerless.

Britain is expected to unveil details of a plan on Thursday to limit banks losses on about 500 billion pounds ($728 billion) of risky assets, which is designed help prevent full nationalisation.

Italy approved its long-awaited bank recapitalisation scheme on Wednesday.

Jitters over too much state ownership persist, however.

British Finance Minister Alistair Darling touched on the sensitive topic of full nationalisation in an opinion piece in the Financial Times newspaper on Wednesday. "It is important that the banks' equity will continue to be owned by institutional and individual investors as well as by the government," he said.

A highly placed French government source told Reuters that France is poised to take preferred shares and an eventual 20 percent stake in what will be the country's second largest bank, pending a planned merger between Banque Populaire and Groupe Caisse d'Epargne. (Reporting by Reuters bureaus worldwide; Writing by Daniel Bases; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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