By Mayank Bhardwaj
NEW DELHI, April 14 (Reuters) - Indian farmers are expected to harvest a record wheat crop in 2011, higher than last year's 80.8 million tonnes, helped by good weather conditions and raising the chance of exports.
The world's second-biggest wheat producer and consumer banned exports in 2007 to bolster domestic supplies as bad weather hit crops.
But India's federal government is expected to tread cautiously and, in the best-case scenario, allow exports of no more than 2 to 3 million tonnes -- just a fraction of the country's estimated 2011 production of around 84 million -- because of surging domestic food prices and exploding demand.
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Here is a chronology of some key events, turning points and decisions on wheat by the government since 2006:
March 2006 - India abolishes 60 percent import tax on overseas purchases of wheat by official agencies, and decides to buy wheat after a gap of six years. The import tax for private players is cut to 5 percent.
May 2006 - State-run Food Corp of India buys only 9.2 million tonnes of wheat from local farmers against a target of 16.2 million tonnes.
July 2006 - Government wheat stocks fall to 8.2 million tonnes, nearly 9 million tonnes below target.
July 2006 - The government estimates India's 2006 wheat production at 69.4 million tonnes against an initial estimate of 73.0 million tonnes.
Dec 2006 - India's wheat imports total 5.5 million tonnes in 2006.
Feb 2007 - India bans wheat exports.
Feb 2007 - India bans wheat futures trade.
May 2007 - Food Corp of India, which buys grain from farmers on behalf of the government, purchased 11 million tonnes of wheat in the season, up from 9.2 million tonnes a year earlier.
Dec 2007 - India imports 1.8 million tonnes of wheat.
Dec 2007 - India axes 36 percent import tax on wheat flour.
May 2008 - Food Corp of India buys 22.7 million tonnes of wheat from domestic farmers during the season.
July 2008 - The government estimates 2008 harvests at 78.5 million tonnes.
May 2009 - Food Corp of India buys a record 25 million tonnes of wheat from local farmers.
May 2009 - India allows wheat futures trade to resume.
July 2009 - The government sees 2009 wheat output at a record 80.7 million tonnes.
July 2009 - The government lifts a ban on wheat exports, but re-imposes the restriction within 10 days on concern food prices may rise as the seasonal monsoon rains fail.
July 2009 - India allows exports of 650,000 tonnes of wheat products until March.
Feb 2010 - India allows 50,000 tonnes of wheat exports to neighbouring Nepal.
Feb 2010 - India produces 80.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2010.
March 2011 - Junior farm minister Arun Yadav said a decision on the four-year-old ban on wheat exports could come as early as in April.
April 2011 - India forecasts 2011 wheat harvest at 84.3 million tonnes, higher than the previous forecast of 81.5 million tonnes and last year's output of 80.8 million tonnes. (Reporting by Mayank Bhardwaj; Editing by Himani Sarkar)