ZEW Survey declined sharply beyond expectations to show a negative outlook for business in the area amid the rising uncertainties. The index slumped to minus 5.9, while the index showed the confidence for Germany also crumbled to minus 9.0. For the current situation, the index showed a decline to 87.6 points, as pessimism is dominating the European Union, especially Germany.
ZEW index is a market mover, its effect can be tracked on the Euro, but today the downbeat data slightly affected the euro which maintained the gains against the dollar. The euro inclined today to record the high of $1.4383 despite the negative data which forced pressures on it.
The level of $1.4325, technically is a critical barrier for the EUR/USD pair, where trading above this level could support the upward trend targeting the resistance at $1.4395; moreover, breaching this point could push the pair further testing the critical resistance at $1.4455, but we should mention that the pair’s failure to consolidate above the barrier may lead the pair to inverse its trend testing the level of $1.4280.
The pair’s upward trend is temporary for the moment, where investors’ fears eased only for now as they expect the confidence motion in Greece to pass, which made the negative data to be ineffective. Eyes are mainly on the debt crisis which is currently considered the primary market mover with intensified effect on the euro and the European market. The euro may decline sharply if the result was a NAY VOTE and a confidence vote for the government will only be temporary relief that already is half way there and gradually prices with the euro already moving to the upside.
From the United Kingdom the shrinking deficit was supported by the taxes compared to government spending. The GBP/USD pair is trading within narrow levels, recording the high of $1.6253 and the low of $1.6165. Technical wise, the pair should stabilize above $1.6245 to continue the upward trend, if not, negative pressures will affect the pair.
Eased jitters in the market amid the awaited result regarding the European debt crisis and hopes that Greece will not default led the equities and commodities to rise during the Asian session and extending to the European session. In such cases we are used to see the Japanese Yen weakening, as investors target higher yielding assets; nonetheless, the Japanese Yen is somewhat weak against the U.S. dollar, as the USD/JPY pair continued to move within a sideways wave so far this week.
The pair movement proves the eased jitters in the market, and also proves the correctional wave in the equities and commodities, but doesn’t prove the optimism in the market. We can notice that investors have their eyes on the upcoming Bernanke’s speech and the rate decision.
The JPY/USD traded today among the levels of 80.07 and 80.34 Yen, which is a familiar sideways range caused by the decline in the dollar’s exchange rate and the Yen against the majors, especially the euro. Technically speaking, the pair’s sideway trend may continue unless 79.65 or 80.75 are breached.