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Sterling falls after Fitch signals UK rating risk

Published 11/10/2009, 11:37 AM
Updated 11/10/2009, 11:42 AM

* Sterling bruised by Fitch comments about UK debt rating * Pound trims losses, data shows UK retail, housing improves

* BoE inflation report due on Wednesday could support pound

By George Matlock

LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Sterling fell on Tuesday after a ratings agency said highly-indebted Britain was the major economy most at risk of losing its triple-A rating.

The pound retreated from a three-month high against the dollar hit on Monday, after Fitch told Reuters Britain would have a tougher time than the United States in sustaining its fiscal deficit without impacting interest rates or the currency.

A further significant fiscal stimulus package could put the coveted rating at risk, it said.

As the UK government borrows heavily to pull the economy out of recession, its weak fiscal position has plagued sterling, and traders often sell the currency on any suggestion Britain may lose its top-notch rating.

Only Britain, the United States, Germany and France are among the major economies are rated AAA and any change could affect the cost of government borrowing.

"Fitch highlighted what the market is fully aware of -- the deterioration in the UK's fiscal position," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London. "Ratings agencies have been warning that the UK has to get its house in order."

Sterling trimmed losses after strong data on UK house prices and retail sales released overnight suggesting the economy may be emerging from recession.

Other data showed the UK trade deficit widened more than expected in September, but reaction was limited.

Investors looked ahead to the Bank of England's quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, when the central bank will set out its latest forecasts for growth and prices.

Some analysts say the forecasts will bolster the market's view that the bank may pause its quantitative easing programme of injecting cash into the economy after last week's 25 billion pounds increase.

Cable fell as much as a cent and half to $1.6600 after the Fitch comment, pulling away from a three-month high of $1.6844 hit on Monday. By 1514 GMT, it had pared losses to trade at $1.6730, around 0.1 percent lower on the day.

The pound fell against the euro, which rose 0.1 percent to 89.60 pence. Earlier in the day, sterling touched 90.18 pence per euro, its weakest in a week.

STATING THE OBVIOUS?

Traders said sterling had fallen in a knee-jerk reaction to Fitch's statement, adding that it recouped some losses on the view that the comments added little to what was already known.

But others maintained that the market's reaction underlined investor nervousness.

UK gilts slipped after the Fitch comments, but recovered as the statements did little to dampen demand at a 10-year debt auction, which produced solid results.

Analysts said the market was focusing on the inflation report. Paul Robinson, sterling analyst at Barclays Capital, said sterling risks were balanced ahead of the release.

"We expect that the 25 billion pound asset buying extension will prove to be the last and that the Monetary Policy Committee will be more positive about the economy. There is potential for modest sterling gains," he said.

Sterling losses were limited on Tuesday as the UK's Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its measure of house prices rose to +34, its highest in nearly three years.

The British Retail Consortium said the value of like-for-like UK sales rose 3.8 percent in October compared with a year ago, the biggest rise since April.

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