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Sterling falls after Fitch flags UK rating risks

Published 11/10/2009, 07:04 AM
Updated 11/10/2009, 07:09 AM

* Sterling falls on Fitch comments about UK rating * Pound trims losses, data shows UK retail, housing improves * UK trade deficit widens, inflation report due on Wednesday

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Sterling fell on Tuesday after a ratings agency said highly-indebted Britain was the major economy most at risk of losing its AAA rating.

The pound retreated from a three-month high hit on Monday, after Fitch told Reuters that Britain would have a tougher time than the United States in sustaining its fiscal deficit without impacting interest rates or the currency.

A further significant fiscal stimulus package could put the coveted rating at risk, it said.

As the UK government borrows heavily to pull its economy out of recession, its weak fiscal position is an issue that has long plagued sterling, and traders often sell the currency on any suggestion Britain may lose its top-notch rating.

Only Britain, the United States, Germany and France among the major economies are rated AAA and any change could affect the cost of government borrowing.

"Fitch highlighted what the market is fully aware of -- the deterioration in the UK's fiscal position," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London. "Ratings agencies have been warning that the UK has to get its house in order."

Sterling pulled back from the session low as London traders bought it back after strong data on UK house prices and retail sales released overnight suggested the economy may be emerging from recession.

Other data showed the UK trade deficit widened more than expected in September, but traders showed limited reaction to the figures.

Investors looked ahead to the BoE's quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, when the central bank will set out its latest forecasts for growth and prices.

Some analysts say the forecasts will bolster the market's view that the bank may pause its quantitative easing programme of injecting cash into the economy after it increased it by 25 billion pounds last week.

The pound fell as much as a cent and half to $1.6600 after the Fitch comment, pulling away from a three-month high of $1.6844 hit on Monday.

By 1120 GMT, it had pared losses to trade at $1.6707, 0.3 percent lower on the day.

The pound fell against the euro, which rose 0.3 percent to 89.78 pence. Earlier in the day, sterling touched 90.18 pence per euro, its weakest in a week.

STATING THE OBVIOUS?

Traders said sterling had fallen in a knee-jerk reaction to Fitch's statement, adding that it recouped some losses on the view that the comments added little to what was already known.

"(Fitch) are not saying the UK is going to lose (its AAA rating), they are just saying if anyone does lose AAA the most likely would be UK," said a trader at a UK bank in London. "I think we knew that yesterday without being told."

The five-year credit default swap on UK debt -- the price of insuring British government debt against default -- was at 56.4 after Fitch's comments, edging up from 55.2 at the New York close on Monday, data from CMA DataVision showed.

UK gilts initially slipped after the Fitch comments, but later recovered as the statement did little to dampen demand at a 10-year debt auction, which produced solid results

Sterling losses were limited as the UK's Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its measure of house prices rose to +34, its highest in nearly three years.

The British Retail Consortium said the value of like-for-like UK sales rose 3.8 percent in October compared with a year ago, the biggest rise since April.

(Reporting by Naomi Tajitsu, editing by Nigel Stephenson)

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