IMPORTING INFLATION
As if the political dimension was not enough of a headache, central bank rate-setters seem to be finding it harder to nail down the sources of the inflation they are tasked to fight. One reason is globalisation.
Central banks have traditionally turned a blind eye to a one-off rise in prices stemming from, say, an increase in consumption taxes, a sharp drop in the exchange rate that boosts import costs or, as now, a spike in oil. As long as the price jolt does not change inflationary expectations or worm its way into the broader economy by prompting workers to ask for higher wages, policy makers have usually felt comfortable in keeping their eye on underlying cost pressures at home.
That remains the consensus, as demonstrated by the Bank of England, which has failed to keep inflation down to its 2 percent target for much of the past five years.
But in a world of integrated supply chains, can inflationary impulses be neatly attributed to either domestic or international forces? Does it now make sense, as some analysts argue, to estimate how much spare capacity there is globally, not locally?
The answers to those questions will have huge implications for monetary policy.
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, one of six members of the ECB's Executive, has warned that sharper rises in the prices of commodities and goods imported from emerging economies will push up euro zone inflation unless domestic prices are controlled. "A permanent and repeated increase in the prices of imported products will tend to impact on inflation in the advanced countries, including the euro area," he said in Bologna in January.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard admits the United States could not consider its own inflation outlook in complete isolation from the rest of the world.
"Perhaps global inflation will drive U.S. prices higher or cause other problems," he told a business breakfast in Kentucky in February. The ties that bind global banks and the ease with which capital flows across borders mean that central banks have to be more aware than ever of the international consequences of their policy actions.
Because the dollar is the dominant world currency, the Fed came under widespread fire for its second round of bond buying. Critics in China and Brazil among others charged that dollars newly minted by the Fed would wash up on their shores, stoking inflation and pumping up asset prices.
"How do we conduct monetary policy in a globalised context?" asks Richard Fisher, the Dallas Fed president. "How do we regulate and supervise and develop our peripheral vision for those that we don't supervise in a formal way, in a globalised context? Not easy."
Structural shifts in the world economy also raise questions about how long central banks should give themselves to hit their inflation goals -- further blurring the picture for investors.
"The central bank always has the choice of the time horizon over which it hits its inflation target," Thygesen, the Copenhagen professor, said. "As the Bank of England is now learning, it may have to extend that horizon somewhat in particularly difficult circumstances. There may be good reasons for doing it, but that is where the element of discretion lies."
The Bank of England expects inflation to remain above target this year before falling back in 2012. The ECB, which seeks medium-term price stability, is resigned to inflation remaining above its target of just below 2 percent for most of 2011. In the last 12 months, it stood at 2.3 percent.
It all adds up to a significant shift in the environment in which central banks operate. Policy-making is a whole lot more complicated. With a broader mandate for keeping the banking system safe comes increased political scrutiny. With fast-expanding export economies like China becoming price setters instead of price takers, offshore inflation and disinflation are of growing importance. If the rise in oil prices is due to increased demand from developing nations, for instance, can western central banks still play down ever-higher energy bills as transient?
That all means it will become tougher for central banks to preserve their most precious asset, credibility.
"Look at the '90s and the early years of this century -- central banks were at the peak of their reputation worldwide, and I was already saying at that time that we know from experience that the risk is highest when you are on top," Issing says. "Central banks have to take care to restore their reputation, if it has been lost. I think this is a difficult situation for central banks worldwide." (Paul Carrel reported from Frankfurt, David Milliken from London and Mark Felsenthal and Pedro Nicolaci da Costa from Washington; Additional reporting by Rie Ishiguro in Tokyo; Writing by Alan Wheatley; Editing by Simon Robinson and Sara Ledwith)