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Soft Danish crown means more rate hikes possible-analysts

Published 10/18/2010, 10:44 AM
Updated 10/18/2010, 10:48 AM
EUR/DKK
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* Danske Bank says next hike could come on Thursday

* Nordea sees next hike more likely after autumn holidays

COPENHAGEN, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The persistent weakness of the Danish crown despite an interest rate hike last week could mean Denmark's central bank will raise rates again soon, analysts said on Monday.

The Nationalbank raised its certificates of deposit rate, seen as its key rate for now, by 10 basis points to 0.60 percent and its current account rate by 10 bps to 0.50 percent on Oct. 14 to bolster the crown. It kept its main lending rate steady at 1.05 percent.

It was Denmark's first tightening of policy in two years, and followed a significant weakening of the crown over the previous month to levels above 7.45 to the euro.

The crown rallied briefly after the move but has since weakened back above levels seen before the hike, at one point approaching 7.46 and trading at 7.4567 to the euro <.EURDKK=> as of 1312 GMT.

"The risk of a rate rise has increased, and it could come on Thursday," Danske Markets senior analyst John Hydeskov said.

"We learned two things last week: They (the bank) have a shorter fuse than we had reckoned with, and Thursday at 4 p.m. is their preferred time for rate changes," Hydeskov said.

The central bank's mandate is to keep the crown steady within a narrow band around a central parity rate of 7.46038 to the euro. It intervenes in the market to buy or sell crowns to strengthen or weaken the currency, but when that proves ineffective, it changes interest rates.

Nordea Markets senior analyst Troels Theill Eriksen said: "There is still some way to central parity, so there is still room for manoeuvre, but definitely, if this continues, we will see some action from the central bank."

Eriksen said autumn holidays in Denmark this week make a further rate increase less likely right away but not impossible, Eriksen said.

The next tightening is expected to come in the form of another hike in the certificates of deposit (CD) rate.

Analysts say this rate has effectively become the bank's main policy tool for now because banks are depositing money rather than borrowing due to an abundance of liquidity, meaning the lending rate does not have its usual policy effect.

They say the first increase in the lending rate is still many months away.

The crown's recent weakening is attributed to an exceptional, negative spread in short-term market interest rates between Denmark and the euro zone.

"In the really short end, the rate spread is still negative," Eriksen said. "It has closed on a three-month horizon but it is still negative on a one-month horizon."

The one-month Danish Cita rate was at 0.693 percent on Monday, below the one-month Eonia rate of 0.745 percent.

The negative gap is explained by a rise in European short-term market rates due to the rolling back of European liquidity measures.

"Short money market rates in Europe are rising, and Danish rates are not keeping up the pace, so there is still a negative spread between Denmark and European money market rates," Hydeskov said.

"It has become less attractive for investors to hold crowns," Hydeskov added.

"One cannot say that the crown is seriously under pressure. It is still below central parity ... but last Thursday we saw that they (the central bank) do not have much tolerance when it comes to outflows of the crown," Hydeskov said. (Reporting by John Acher and Ole Mikkelsen; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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