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SNB sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy-Jordan

Published 08/25/2009, 11:15 AM
Updated 08/25/2009, 11:18 AM
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* SNB board member says not time to change mon policy yet

* SNB sticking to full set of unorthodox measures-Jordan

* Jordan says to fight franc appreciation decisively

* Deflation risks dominate

* Jordan says unemployment to hit post-war record in 2010

By Sven Egenter

SCHWYZ, Switzerland, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank is sticking to its ultra-loose monetary policy as deflation risks dominate and the country faces record unemployment despite first positive signs from the economy, an SNB policymaker said on Tuesday.

The SNB will decisively prevent a rise in the Swiss franc, provide ample liquidity to the money market, keep interest rates low and buy corporate bonds to keep credit spreads down, board member Thomas Jordan said on Tuesday.

"The time (for a change in monetary policy) has not come for Switzerland yet," Jordan said, according to the text of a speech due for delivery at an event in the Swiss town of Schwyz.

The central bank was now in a waiting position, he said, adding this should not be confused with inactivity. "The SNB continues its very expansionary monetary policy and proceeds decidedly with its unconventional measures launched on March 12," he said.

Since its March policy meeting, the SNB has flooded the market with cheap money, intervened in the foreign exchange market to stop the franc rising and bought mainly Swiss covered bonds.

The central bank had noted the significant recovery of financial markets and an economic improvement in main trading partners such as Germany, Jordan said.

However, Switzerland may recover only with a delay because companies were still cutting investments and consumption was set to take a hit from rising unemployment, Jordan said.

Jordan repeated the SNB's forecast that the economy would shrink by up to 3 percent this year. The economy should pass the trough in the next few months and recovery should gain traction in 2010.

There were no signs of inflationary pressures in the medium term, Jordan said. "In fact, deflation risks still dominate at the moment."

RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT

Most economists expect the SNB to maintain its loose monetary policy well into 2010 as consumer prices have fallen at their fastest annual pace in 50 years in recent months, with no inflationary pressures in sight.

Economic indictors have shown signs of stabilisation and positive news from trading partners has raised hopes that a recovery of the Swiss economy is also near.

It has weathered the crisis better then many of its peers so far thanks to its resilient consumers but many economists forecast a fourth quarterly contraction in a row in the second quarter. GDP data are due on Sept 1.

Jordan noted positive signs from construction and said that foreign trade may have contributed positively to GDP in the second quarter as imports shrank faster than exports.

The UBS consumption indicator for Switzerland fell in July, pointing to softer consumption growth, while employment fell for the first time in nearly six years in the second quarter as manufacturers axed jobs, data showed on Tuesday. [ID:nLO607097][ID:nLP132208]

Jordan drew a dire picture of the labour market. The unemployment rate was set to rise to an average of nearly 6 percent 2010 from some 4 percent 2009, hitting a post war record, he said.

But the number of registered unemployed was still painting too positive a picture because it did not capture people in government-subsidised measures such as short-term work, he said.

For an abstract of the speech in English and the full text in German click on www.snb.ch/

(Reporting by Sven Egenter; editing by David Stamp)

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