SNAP ANALYSIS-Europe unions fail to grab agenda with protest day

Published 09/29/2010, 10:51 AM
Updated 09/29/2010, 10:56 AM

* Limited protests outside Spain and Brussels

* European union movement seen to be lacking coordination

* Unrest expected to increase in the new year

By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent

LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - What should have been a Europe-wide day of trade union protests against austerity proved relatively unimpressive, analysts say, showing the difficulties of coordinating action across the continent.

But country-specific protests look set to continue, and in many cases intensify, as cuts begin to bite, and Europe could well see another attempt at organising a continental protest day some time in the new year.

Whether that will be enough to prompt governments to roll back their plans is another matter, however, with the political and market consensus still largely behind deficit reduction despite some worries over the effect on growth.

The main focus of Wednesday's protest action was Spain, where the first general strike in eight years had limited impact beyond disrupting transport and some factories.

Tens of thousands of European unionists also marched in Brussels. But aside from that, protests appeared limited to small shows of support. European markets were unruffled.

"This shows some of the problems with trying to have a European-wide campaign," said Control Risks Western Europe analyst David Lea. "People experience the economic problems locally and protest will be on a local or country level as well. This was always going to struggle without the involvement of the French and German unions as well as the British."

There has been a clear autumnal uptick in strike action and unrest, but action has generally been very country-specific.

French unions protested last week against pension reforms, Italian unions will march in October for tax reforms and Romanian, Czech, Polish and Slovenian workers all mounted protests or strikes separately in recent days.

Aside from the more militant transport union, Britain's unions are seen largely holding back from widespread action until the New Year, as clarity on where cuts will fall will only come in the government's October spending review.

WAITING UNTIL SPRING?

"They might have another try in the New Year at European-wide action," said Lea. "The Spanish unions have already said they won't have another general strike before Christmas. I think rather than an autumn of discontent, a spring of slightly more discontent is probably what you are looking at at this stage."

IHS Jane's European security analyst Carina O'Reilly said she believed the Spanish demonstrations on Wednesday, with occasional barricades and scuffles, had been quite successful, at least in seizing media attention.

Unions had also shown a reasonable degree of collaboration in putting together the general strike and generally getting more protesters on the streets than before.

"In a lot of countries, unions have enough trouble working with each other within the country to coordinate," she said. "It's hardly a surprise that they struggle even more to coordinate across borders."

The European day of action had also suffered from the fact that outside Spain, where the national issues were well defined, it was far from clear exactly what protesters were marching against, she said.

Looking ahead, O'Reilly said Romania was the most likely country where protests could change policy, given government fragility and unpopular police pay cuts that could make controlling demonstrations challenging.

Firms with premises in European city centres would be reviewing their security, she said -- although what action they would take would vary from country to country.

"In London, if you're a bank with large plate glass windows your insurance premiums are already pretty heavy but you wouldn't need to do much more," she said. "In Madrid, Paris, parts of Eastern Europe, they are probably going to go up. In Athens, I'd get some serious shutters."

(Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

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