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Serb 11-month c/a gap widens to $2.1 bln

Published 01/12/2010, 07:10 AM
Updated 01/12/2010, 07:12 AM

BELGRADE, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Serbia's current account gap widened by another $200 million in November, bringing the 11-month deficit to $2.14 billion, but remains at a quarter of 2008 levels, the central bank said on Tuesday.

The deficit was $8.2 billion in January-November 2008.

At a six-year low since May, the current account gap has not pressured the dinar until end-November. But falling remittances and rising debt servicing in December will worsen the full-month balance of payments reading, a central bank official said.

Branko Hinic, head of the central bank's macroeconomic research unit, said poorer balance of payments figures combined with fiscal gap financing triggered dinar volatility in December.

On Monday, Finance Minister Diana Dragutinovic said that the balance of payments, rather than deficit financing, had caused the decline in value of the dinar currency over the past month.

"The December fall in remittances is likely to be in the double digits as people refrained from selling euros after the dinar started to decline," Hinic told Reuters.

"December will also show a higher foreign trade deficit," Hinic said. "There was demand among companies to repay maturing debts and finally at the end of the month, the government obtained new dinar liquidity, adding pressure on the dinar."

The 11-month balance of payments showed a capital account surplus of $2.25 billion bolstered by higher borrowing, rather than investment.

Remittances, shown in the current transfers item, rose 10 percent month-on-month to $4.5 billion, up on $3.5 billion in January-November 2008.

Heavily reliant on foreign investment and borrowing for growth, Serbia has run big current account deficits for years. The balance of payments turned positive in May for the first time since 2001.

The government sees foreign direct investments at $3.0 billion in 2010, up from an estimated $2.0 billion in 2009, with new investment going mainly to the automotive, textile and electronics industries.

Portfolio investment is expected to pick up in the second half of 2010 as top state monopolies -- oil and landline -- and the Belgrade airport list their shares. SERBIA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS JAN-NOV JAN-NOV 08 JAN-DEC 08 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (mln USD) - 2,147 - 8,169 - 8,721 - Goods - 5,997 - 10,298 -11,256 - Services - 2 - 267 - 255 - Income - 645 - 1,104 -1,356 - Current transfers 4,497 3,450 4,146 CAPITAL ACCOUNT BALANCE 2,253 8,308 8,879 - Capital account - 1 20 20 - FDIs 1,487 2,671 2,717 - Portfolio - 69 - 99 - 134 - Other investments 3,454 4,357 3,926 - Central bank financing - 2,618 1,359 2,350 ERRORS AND OMISSIONS - 106 - 140 158 (Reporting by Gordana Filipovic; Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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