PARIS, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The French government says there is enough supply for fuel pumps and called on motorists to stay calm as strikes paralysed most of the country's oil refining industry on Thursday.
Some petrol stations reported brief shortages due to panic buying and oil sector lobby UFIP said shortages could start in some areas next week.
Refinery workers have been striking since Tuesday as part of wider protests against a government pension reform plan which is moving towards approval by the parliament.
Workers at the Mediterranean oil port of Fos-Lavera, which supplies several refineries with crude, have been protesting against a port reform for 18 consecutive day, making it the longest oil port strike on record.
Following are some scenarios of how the situation could unfold:
UNIONS, GOVERNMENT DIG IN: SHORTAGES AND STRATEGIC STOCKS
Oil refining, together with rail transport, has been at the heart of this week's protests against pension reform.
The CGT union at Total's six French refineries is continuing to call for a complete renegotiation of the reform, while at Fos-Lavera oil workers have so far refused management concessions regarding a port reform.
The standoff between strikers and the government could worsen upon approval of the pensions bill. In 1995, trade unions crushed an attempt to overhaul pensions with 24 days of strikes.
"You need to compare the mindset of the French government versus the unions with previous years," a trader with a major bank said.
"It's somebody's last stand. People are referring to it as (President Nicolas) Sarkozy's Margaret Thatcher moment. It's an ugly situation with extremely entrenched people and it doesn't make many people think it will end soon," he added.
Total's refineries, which already saw strikes this year over the planned closure of the Dunkirk plant that is still being contested by unions in the courts, could be worst hit. A continuation of the strike at both refineries and at Fos-Lavera could lead to some fuel shortages for motorists next week, which could snowball if panic buying spreads and if strikers extend blockades to fuel depots.
France may then cut into its strategic reserves, having already agreed to make some other stocks available to free up supply for road transport.
Some analysts do not expect an immediate draw-down on strategic reserves given sizeable commercial stocks around Europe but others see a swift move as likely to reassure businesses and consumers.
STRIKES FADE AS PENSION REFORM ADOPTED: LITTLE DISRUPTION
Oil sector stoppages could run out of steam as strikers become isolated by a fading of opposition as the pension reform becomes law and if limited run-outs of fuel at petrol stations turn opinion against the strike movement.
Loss of earnings and the risk of job losses could also drive some strikers back to work. Unions at Petroplus' Reichstett refinery limited action this week to a one-hour stoppage as they said major disruption would be counterproductive at a time when the plant is up for sale.
Shortages would be minimal as refineries use inventories and start up production again, although a continuation of the Fos-Lavera strike could keep up logistical problems as refiners are forced to bring in crude supply via alternative routes.
GOVERNMENT MAKES CONCESSIONS TO UNIONS - NO SHORTAGES
Sarkozy intervened in February during the strike at Total's refineries to push the oil major to reach a settlement with workers, and could decide to defuse the current refinery conflict to avoid it tarnishing his flagship pension reform.
Government concessions could also ease the standoff at Fos-Lavera, as well as more limited disputes at other ports, where pension issues have hardened opposition to a 2008 port reform.
A return to work at some refineries and above all at Fos-Lavera in the next few days would avert petrol station shortages. (Reporting by Gus Trompiz, Mathilde Cru, Nicholas Vinocur in Paris, Emma Farge in London, editing by Anthony Barker)