By Leika Kihara
TOKYO, June 11 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan looks set to hold off on new initiatives at its next policy review and may strike a slightly more upbeat tone on the economy as rising exports and output encourage hopes that the worst of the recession is over.
The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.1 percent when it meets on Monday and Tuesday next week.
Here are some possible outcomes from the meeting, as well as expected market reactions:
BOJ UPGRADES ECONOMIC VIEW
The most likely outcome is for the BOJ to use less pessimistic wording to describe the economy than it did last month, when it said things were worsening.
That would reflect improvements in exports and a sharp rebound in output, as companies restock after a heavy rundown of inventories since late last year.
But any change in phrasing will be minor as the BOJ remains cautious on the outlook. Kazuo Monma, the BOJ's chief economist and the main compiler of its monthly report on the economy, said on Wednesday it is too early to conclude that the economy has hit bottom.
Many board members side with this view and see risks skewed to the downside with weaker capital spending and consumption, which together make up 70 percent of GDP.
Financial markets are unlikely to react much to a change in assessment as few expect an interest rate hike any time soon.
But some might read the change as a sign the bank could be less willing to extend the September deadline for a series of steps to ease corporate credit strains.
The spread between the two- and 20-year Japanese government bond yields has been widening since last October and hit a 3-½ year high of 183 basis points on June 2, reflecting fears that the Federal Reserve could keep monetary conditions too easy for too long.
BOJ DEBATES FATE OF FUND-SUPPLY STEPS
The BOJ may debate whether to extend beyond the current deadline of September its buying of commercial paper and corporate bonds from banks, as well as its scheme of extending loans to banks at 0.1 percent interest for collateral.
But no decision is expected until July or August, to see if there are more signs that financial strains are in fact easing.
The steps were launched between December last year and February to ease corporate financing conditions, which tightened amid the global financial crisis.
Corporate bond issuance is coming back to life and the BOJ's offer to buy commercial paper drew no bids on June 5, the first time it attracted no interest, suggesting the need may be waning.
The BOJ said last month that while financial conditions had eased they remained severe as companies with low credit ratings were still struggling to raise funds.
Governor Masaaki Shirakawa may repeat that guarded stance in his post-meeting news conference, keeping market players guessing on whether the fund-support will stay beyond September.
Many within the BOJ see the measures as an important backstop even in times of calm, in case conditions worsen again.
Money markets may take a hit if Shirakawa, though highly unlikely, signals the possibility of ending the measures.
BOJ board member Hidetoshi Kamezaki said on June 3 it was not yet time for the BOJ to consider ending its unconventional policy steps.
BOJ ACCEPTS MORE TYPES OF COLLATERAL
This is most unlikely as easing funding strains and rising share prices have given the BOJ time to assess the effect of the steps it has taken so far, before making new policy moves.
The BOJ has been constantly expanding the type of assets it accepts as collateral in its market operations. It will keep doing so based on the needs of private banks and companies, but not for now. Even if it did so, the moves would not go beyond fine-tuning of its market operations.
Despite recent gains in bond yields, the BOJ is unlikely to expand its outright buying of long-term government bonds from the current 21.6 trillion yen ($220.8 billion) per year.
The BOJ does not see the need to act unless yields jump suddenly or sustain rises long enough to hurt already weak capital spending.
Although the BOJ has said it is not trying to push down bond yields, market players suspect that it increased outright JGB buying in December and again in March, in part to prevent rising debt issuance from pushing up yields.
Shirakawa is unlikely to provide an explicit comment on whether it will increase JGB buying. But bond yields could briefly fall if he voices concern over recent rises in long-term interest rates. ($1=97.80 Yen) (Editing by Jan Dahinten and Michael Watson)