* Econ Min raises oil price forecasts for 2009-2012
* This year's slowdown could be smaller than expected
* Higher budget revenues could mean less borrowing
By Toni Vorobyova
MOSCOW, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Russia's government has turned more optimistic on growth, forecasting the economy could return to pre-recession levels as early as the end of 2012 thanks to higher oil prices, a government source said on Tuesday. Russia has been suffering since the second half of last year, when investors fled emerging markets, oil and commodity prices slumped, the rouble was devalued and the global credit crunch left companies struggling to refinance hefty debts.
But this summer has brought early signs that the worst of Russia's first recession in a decade may be over, with officials touting a return to growth in month-on-month terms.
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Russia had raised its forecasts for the average Urals oil price to $57 a barrel this year from $54 previously, and expects the price to increase gradually to $60 by 2012.
A government source told reporters that, as a result, the Economy Ministry now sees Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) rising 1.6 percent in 2010, 3.0 percent in 2011 and 4.3 percent in 2012, compensating for the 8.5 percent GDP fall expected in 2009.
"In 2012 we will reach the pre-crisis level of GDP. Previously this was not so," the source said adding that this year's slowdown could be less deep than officially forecast, perhaps 8.2-8.3 percent.
"The external economic sphere has changed significantly thanks to the oil price, metals prices and higher volumes of gas exports and output ... Secondly, (the Economy Ministry) factored in a slightly more optimistic economic reaction on investment and on competitiveness in terms of import substitution."
The improved forecasts come after Russian Railways trimmed its expectations for the slump in rail freight -- seen as a key barometer for economic health.
However the official forecasts are still gloomier than analysts' consensus in a Reuters poll on Monday, which showed Russian GDP falling just 7.4 percent this year, followed by growth of 3.0 percent in 2010.
The Economy Ministry has turned more optimistic in its views on capital investment and industrial production, with the source also saying that 2009 inflation could come in under 12 percent.
Russia's central bank is counting on a steady easing in inflationary pressures to enable it to keep cutting official interest rates in a bid to encourage commercial lenders to help the real economy with affordable loans. Analysts are expecting the next rate cut by the end of the month.
LESS BORROWING?
Thanks to the brighter outlook on the economy, budget revenues should "change significantly," the source said.
"In these conditions, the deficit could turn out to be smaller than is now planned. Some (of the extra cash) will go on extra spending, and some on reducing borrowing."
Currently Russia is braced for a 2010 deficit of 7.5 percent of GDP, which will be partly funded by around $18 billion in foreign borrowing.
One exception to the overall brighter outlook was retail sales, where the slowdown is now seen a bit deeper than before. "There will be (economic) growth, but you cannot call it an intensive recovery or a jump. This growth includes elements of pause, and only in the second half of 2010 the recovery will become more sure-footed," the government source said.
"I do not exclude that in September we could have a minus in manufacturing and in the winter there could be a second pause." (Reporting by Toni Vorobyova; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)