LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - The world's major emerging economies are set to stage a strong recovery next year but Russia could lag peers Brazil and China as confidence in its banks and currency remains fragile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Tuesday.
In its new interim economic outlook, the OECD said the slowdown in Chinese exports was showing signs of bottoming out since the start of 2009 but cautioned that the downturn in emerging markets could be more intense than projected.
"The exceptional contraction of world trade towards the end of 2008 and at the beginning of 2009 will gradually ease and come to a halt by end 2009, and robust recovery is projected in 2010. This turnaround is largely driven by strong imports and exports of non-OECD countries," the OECD said in its interim report.
Though not among OECD's membership roster of 30 nations, Brazil, Russia, India and China -- collectively known as the BRICs -- have accumulated substantial wealth amid years of rapid economic development.
The OECD said Russia's 2010 recovery would be weak due to sharply lower oil prices and the impact of rising unemployment on private consumption in the country.
"If global conditions turn out even worse than expected, recovery in Russia could be delayed into 2010 or beyond," the OECD said.
It forecast a 5.6 percent economic contraction for Russia and 0.7 percent expansion next year.
In contrast, Brazil's economy would contract 0.3 percent this year but grow 3.8 percent in 2010, thanks to looser monetary policy and improving credit conditions.
But the OECD cautioned that rising interest rates due to deteriorating public finances could derail the country's recovery.
The Paris-based organisation also said the Indian economy would expand 4.3 percent in 2009 with falling exports offsetting the expansion in domestic demand.
Indian growth could hit 5.8 percent next year.
The OECD noted that tax cuts in India to boost domestic spending had been accompanied by protectionist measures such as the hiking of tarrifs on steel and the banning of Chinese toy exports.
"Recourse to protectionist measures should be avoided," it added.
On China, the OECD said it saw 6.3 percent growth this year, rising to 8.5 percent in 2010.
"A pick up in credit growth is helping the economy regain momentum, but it will be important for financial sector supervisors to keep an eye on the quality of banks' portfolios," it added.
(Reporting by Sebastian Tong and Catherine Bosley; editing by Patrick Graham)