RPT-GLOBAL MARKETS-US dollar slips, gold steady before data, G7

Published 10/08/2010, 03:14 AM
Updated 10/08/2010, 03:20 AM
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* Tech sector losses weigh on Asia stocks a second day

* Positioning may slow US dollar losses

* Focus on China at G7 may make Japan intervention tough (Repeats to more subscribers)

By Kevin Plumberg

HONG KONG, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar headed for a fourth week of declines on Friday, supporting gold and emerging market equities while also reflecting strong convictions before U.S. job data and contentious international meetings about currencies.

Major European stocks opened slightly lower, with the FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> easing down 0.3 percent. [ID:nLDE69709X]

Bets against the U.S. dollar have grown significantly since September because of increased expectations the Federal Reserve will print more money to buy debt. That may limit the downside if the payrolls number is lower than the unchanged reading that analysts forecast in a Reuters poll.

Still, if the Fed and perhaps other central banks follow suit with the Bank of Japan and get more aggressive about easing policy than markets anticipate, the cheap money trade of selling dollars and buying gold, emerging market equities and longer-term bonds will undoubtedly spread.


For a preview of U.S. non-farm payrolls, click

http://link.reuters.com/nem47p

For PDF on global currency tensions, click

http://r.reuters.com/dyw27p

For more on the G7/IMF meetings, click

[ID:nN07159780][ID:nN07164950]


Japan's Nikkei share average finished 1 percent lower <.N225> after hitting a two-month intraday high on Thursday. The yen's persistent strength, even after the Bank of Japan surprised investors with a rate cut on Tuesday, has frustrated some into cutting their Japanese equity exposure.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> slipped 0.2 percent after closing at a 28-month high on Thursday. Declines were spread evenly across most sectors, though shares in the technology sector fell 1 percent, underperforming for a second day.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.8 percent <.HSI>, closing in on a two-year high, with real estate developers outperforming the broad market on expectations the domestic government at a policy address next week will unlikely erect harsh rules to cap property prices.

FOLLOW THE FLOW

The falling U.S. dollar has been a boon for emerging market stocks, which have been a magnet for foreign investment. In the week to Oct. 6, emerging market equity funds absorbed more than $6 billion in new money, the second largest weekly inflow on record, fund tracker EPFR Global said in a report.

Investor interest has focused on Latin America and Asia.

In the foreign exchange market, the euro , which has benefited from dollar weakness, was largely unchanged at $1.3930 after the currency reached an eight-month high around $1.4030 on Thursday.

The rapid increase of bets on the euro means the threshold for more dollar weakness after the U.S. payrolls figure is high.

"Positioning could limit the degree of dollar downside, particularly against the euro," Todd Elmer, currency strategist with Citi in Singapore, said in a note.

"This likely means that the bar for a dollar-positive surprise on the upside is somewhat lower and a just above consensus outcome may not be a significant spark for volatility."

The dollar was trading at 82.35 yen , above a 15-year low of 82.11 yen plumbed on Thursday.

The outcome of the Group of Seven rich nations meeting this weekend could influence views on when Japanese officials will intervene again to pull down the yen.

Japan's first intervention in six years last month fed into a heated debate globally -- what some have even called a currency war -- about what governments can do to keep their currencies from strengthening against the falling dollar.

"There's speculation that if the G7 wants a coordinated stance to put pressure on China to raise the yuan, then it becomes more difficult for Japan to intervene," said a dealer at a Japanese brokerage house.

Gold prices were steady at $1,332.75 an ounce in the spot market . The precious metal traded in a wide range on Thursday, hitting an all-time high of $1,364.60 but then ending the session around $1.332.70.

The 90-day inverse correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar is the strongest it has been all year, meaning when one falls, the other is very much likely to rise based on price action over the past three months. (Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in TOKYO; Editing by Kazunori Takada)

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