GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar eases, gold hits peak, markets eye Fed

Published 09/20/2010, 03:15 AM
Updated 09/20/2010, 03:16 AM
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* Markets await Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday

* Gold hits all-time high as U.S. consumer morale sags

* Equity markets edge higher, Indian shares at 32-mth peak

* Yuan rises for eighth day

By Alex Richardson

SINGAPORE, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down and gold hit a record high on Monday as possible further Federal Reserve moves to increase money supply weighed on the U.S. currency and boosted alternative assets.

Uncertainty about the global economic recovery, fuelled by weak U.S. consumer sentiment data on Friday, and a public holiday in Japan also kept many investors sidelined, with oil steady after a drop last week while Asian equities eked out small gains.

European shares ended a four-session losing run, with the FTSEurofirst and Germany's DAX rising 0.3 percent in early trade, while Britain's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 gained 0.6 percent. "This week will continue to be dominated by concerns about further Fed easing or stimulus at Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate meeting, especially given last Friday's disappointing Michigan consumer sentiment number for September," Michael Hewson, market analyst at CMC Markets in London, wrote in a note.

Japan intervened to sell yen for the first time in six years last week, partially interrupting a decline in the dollar that began when talk of further quantitative easing -- effectively printing money -- by the U.S. central bank revived last month.

"If the Fed decides to give more hints it is about to embark on more QE, the U.S. dollar slide will probably continue," said John Kyriakopoulos, a currency analyst at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

The Fed is not expected to make any new monetary policy moves on Tuesday, but the post-meeting statement will be closely parsed for signals on the debate about whether further large-scale asset purchases are needed to support the sluggish recovery.

Views differ among Fed officials about whether stubbornly high unemployment merits more aggressive policy intervention.

Recent data appear to indicate the U.S. economy is not sliding back into recession as some market watchers had feared, but investors are wrestling with how to value stocks as the global recovery loses momentum and sales outlooks grow more uncertain.

MSCI's broadest index of Asian shares outside Japan rose 0.4 percent, with most equity markets gaining modestly, although indexes in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Australia slipped.

Indian shares were the stand-out performers, rising 1 percent to a 32-month high on surging foreign portfolio investment.

BETS AGAINST DOLLAR

Market sentiment on the major currencies was summed up by the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. They showed investors had increased bets against the U.S. dollar to the highest level in a month, while sharply cutting back net short positions in the euro and sterling.

On Monday, the dollar was parked at 85.70 yen having spent Friday in a tight 85.57 to 85.92 range as the risk of further intervention by Tokyo kept investors away.

China's yuan recorded its biggest eight-day gain since January 2008 as the central bank fixed its mid-point at another post-revaluation high following intense U.S.-led political pressure.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner vowed last week to rally other world powers to push China for trade and currency reforms as he was grilled by lawmakers, many of whom believe China keeps the yuan artificially low to unfairly benefit its manufacturers.

Gold which tends to benefit from economic uncertainty as it is viewed by many investors as a safe-haven asset, rose as high as $1,283.25 an ounce, eclipsing the previous all-time peak of $1,282.75 struck on Friday.

"For today at least, the market will continue to speculate on more quantitative easing ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday, which should provide some support to gold," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Philip Futures.

U.S. crude oil futures which slipped nearly 4 percent last week, were unchanged at $73.66 a barrel, with many traders waiting for the Fed's readout on the U.S. economy.

"If they lower their forecasts as some people are expecting, oil prices would be pushed down because it implies lower demand," said Michelle Kwek, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in Singapore. (To read Reuters Global Investing Blog click on http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting; for the MacroScope Blog click on http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope; for Hedge Fund Blog Hub click on http://blogs.reuters.com/hedgehub)

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