GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar drops, commodities jump on G20 steps

Published 10/25/2010, 03:17 AM
Updated 10/25/2010, 03:20 AM
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* G20 language on "market determined" FX rates keeps USD down

* Bullish commodities trend still in place

* Asia stocks climb after declining last week

* ASX shares leap 19 pct on $8 bln bid from Singapore's SGX

* Just how much will the Fed's QE2 be? (Repeats to include additional subscribers)

By Kevin Plumberg

HONG KONG, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped on Monday after a Group of 20 meeting produced enough agreement despite discordant policies to keep the status quo on the trade of selling the U.S. currency and buying stocks and commodities such as copper.

Major European stock markets were up shortly after opening with the FTSEurofirst 300 index 0.40 percent higher.

While the G20 meeting did not reach a consensus on details such as numerical targets for a country's economic imbalances, the group found common ground on the need for more "market determined" exchange rates and concluded with a shift in power to developing economies in the International Monetary Fund -- enough to avert an all-out currency war, for now.

"It looks like the market has taken the G20 as a green light to continue with the trends up to that point, which have been towards U.S. dollar weakness," said Sue Trinh, senior FX strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

Investor focus will probably shift to a Federal Reserve policy meeting on Nov 2-3 that could result in the central bank printing money to buy assets, although estimates of how big the program will be varied widely.

Dealers will parse a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at 1230 GMT for indications whether he is leaning toward aggressive quantitative easing or a moderate approach.

The U.S. dollar slid to a 15-year low against the yen of 80.65 yen, with some dealers confident the Bank of Japan would not intervene to weaken its currency so soon after a G20 meeting promoting flexible exchange rates.

The euro rose 0.8 percent to $1.4058, having risen 9.6 percent since September. A convincing move above $1.4050 means the market will next want to target the 9-month high reached last Friday, at $1.4160.

Investors were essentially again betting against the dollar after the G20 meeting reduced some risks of a goods trade backlash from conflicting currency policies.

Short-term investors on the International Monetary Market had a collective bet against the dollar worth $25.8 billion for the week ended Oct. 19, down from about $30 billion two weeks prior.

POST-G20 MARKET LIFTS ASIA FX

After the G20, dealers were keen also to add to their bets on additional strength in emerging Asian currencies, which many policymakers believe have to be allowed to rise as part of a recipe for fixing global economic imbalances.

The region has been a magnet for capital flows and will probably continue to see these flows of money push up domestic currencies.

"The sharp drop in U.S. yields alongside robust Asian fundamentals is fuelling large equity, fixed income and speculative currency inflows into Asian economies. The prospect of the Fed embarking on Fed QE2 in November suggests these FX flows are unlikely to reverse meaningfully any time soon," Credit Suisse currency strategists said in a note.

The dollar fell 0.9 percent against the South Korean won. The won's broad trade-weighted exchange rate is roughly 13 percent below its 10-year average, Bank for International Settlements data showed, partially the result of repeated intervention by the Bank of Korea.

Buying of Asia ex-Japan equities was spread out across sectors, though financials, energy and commodities outperformed slightly. The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan was up 1.8 percent after ending last week down 1.2 percent.

Shares of Australia's ASX popped 19 percent higher after Singapore Exchange said it wanted to buy Asia's third-largest exchange for $8.3 billion. The deal would create the fifth-largest exchange in the world.

Japan's Nikkei share average was the odd man out, slipping 0.3 percent on cautiousness about how the yen's strength would impact corporate results ahead of the earnings season.

Japanese exports slowed for a seventh consecutive month in September, stung by yen strength and slowing overseas demand.

Metals were early winners after the G20 meeting. Gold rose 1.4 percent to $1,345.60 an ounce, creeping closer to its all-time high at $1,387.10 an ounce.

Copper traded on the London Metal Exchange jumped more than 2 percent to $8,549.00 a tonne, a two-year high, clearing the way for a try at triangle pattern resistance at $8,640.

Crude for December delivery climbed 1.2 percent to $82.65 a barrel, extending a 12 percent rise since September, when expectations spread for the Fed to inject copious amounts of cheap money into the financial system. (Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano, Charlotte Cooper and Aiko Hayashi in TOKYO, Reuters Market Analyst Wang Tao in SINGAPORE and Reuters FX Analyst Krishna Kumar in SYDNEY; Editing by David Fox)

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