ANKARA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Turkey's government said long-running talks with the International Monetary Fund would be wrapped up in a week, refreshing hopes that the country would strike a new stand-by accord.
Although Turkey has no urgent need of funds, investors have urged the government to agree a new deal ever since the last stand-by arrangement, a $10 billion facility available over three years, expired in May 2008.
Here are questions and answers about Turkey and the IMF:
WHY DOES TURKEY WANTS A DEAL WITH IMF?
* Turkey wants a new IMF accord to help rein in a fiscal deficit that ballooned last year as Ankara spent heavily to help the economy recover from deep contraction seen at 6 percent.
* Cheaper IMF cash would buttress a so-far weak economic recovery by reducing the funds the Treasury borrows from the market, letting banks lend more to the private sector. Growth is seen at 3.5 percent this year.
* An IMF accord would provide the policy anchor investors desire. They want Turkey to reduce a budget deficit that is seen as the main economic risk. It surged 446 percent to $32 billion in the first 11 months of 2009.
* Ability to borrow a large sum at a favourable rate would help shield Turkey against future external shocks. Turkey's outstanding debt to the IMF is $8.2 billion, most recent data shows.
WHAT KIND OF DEAL MIGHT TURKEY SIGN?
* Turkey and the IMF are not negotiating a "rescue package" like the one seen in Iceland last year. A stand-by agreement would allow Turkey to borrow up to a specified amount over a set period, provided it abides by terms.
* Turkey has said it is discussing a two-year deal. Markets expect it to be worth $20-$30 billion.
WHAT IS THE LIKELY MARKET IMPACT OF AN IMF DEAL?
* Turkey's benchmark stock index, already boosted by expectations of an IMF deal, are now at two-year highs and only 8 percent lower than an all-time high seen in October 2007. A new accord could give an extra lift, but is largely priced-in, analysts say.
* The lira, which firmed only a feeble 3.24 percent to the dollar in 2009, would certainly gain on a new accord. Talk of one has already lifted the lira, and it is seen firming to around 1.4000 to the dollar from a current 1.4560. The gains could be limited by Turks seizing the chance to increase their local foreign currency deposits. Also, the dollar could strengthen against European currencies in general as the U.S. recovery is seen outpacing Europe in 2010.
* IMF funding would ease concerns about upward pressure on bond yields. Some analysts expect an accord could help keep yields stable or prompt limited falls of up to 50 basis points. Yields hit all-time lows around 7.5 percent in October but budget deficit worries dragged them back to around 9 percent.
* Unless there is a deal, domestic banks' appetite for Turkish paper could become exhausted, in which case Turkey might have to raise policy rates to lure back foreign investors.
WHY HAVE NEGOTIATIONS TAKEN SO LONG?
* The government has blamed IMF demands. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan previously said the IMF sought autonomy for the Finance Ministry's tax office, and he would never accept this. Payments to municipalities were another stumbling block.
* Turkish voters remember the privatisations, spending cuts and price rises the IMF imposed on Turkey to tackle its domestic crisis in 2001. With elections due by mid-2011, the government does not want to appear to have submitted to IMF terms.
* Opposition from some manufacturers and exporters worried about a stronger lira, and from trade unions fearful of possible austerity measures could have been delaying factors.
WHAT NEXT?
* The Turkish Treasury has to invite an IMF team to Turkey if it wants a deal.
* The IMF team would draft a letter of intent with the Turkish authorities, and update a report on the economy. Those would be submitted to the IMF Executive Board in Washington. The first tranche of the loan would be released once the board meets and gives approval. (Additional reporting by Alexandra Hudson; writing by Selcuk Gokoluk; editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Stephen Nisbet)