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Q+A-Japan finance min's health keeps markets guessing

Published 01/04/2010, 11:13 PM
Updated 01/04/2010, 11:15 PM

By Linda Sieg and Rie Ishiguro

TOKYO, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii, 77, who was admitted to hospital last week for health tests, said on Tuesday he would decide whether to stay in his post before parliament convenes later this month.

One of the few experienced members of the novice Democratic Party-led government, Fujii was admitted to hospital after saying he was "worn out" by wrangling about how to balance the heavily indebted budget.

Below are some questions and answers about the possible impact on economic policies if Fujii has to be replaced, or stays on despite health concerns.

WOULD FISCAL POLICY CHANGE?

Not in a big way, but perhaps around the edges.

Fujii was one of the main proponents of sticking to a cap of around 44 trillion yen ($474 billion) on new bond issuance in the budget for the year from April 1, while banking minister Shizuka Kamei, the outspoken head of a small party in the ruling bloc, pressed for more spending.

Without a heavyweight advocate of fiscal restraint in the finance minister post, the government might be more inclined to boost spending if the economy falters as an upper house election set for mid-2010 approaches, fanning bond market jitters.

Even if Fujii stays on, some analysts fear he would be less able to resist pressure to boost spending.

Still, some said Democratic Party mastermind Ichiro Ozawa was key to a decision to dump some campaign promises to hold the line on borrowing, so Fujii's departure might not matter so much.

WHAT ABOUT THE YEN?

Fujii has said currency rates should not be manipulated out of line with economy fundamentals and has made comments favouring a strong yen that echo the Democratic Party-led government's desire to wean Japan from dependence on exports for growth.

But Fujii has also said intervention is an option if the currency moves too far, too fast, reflecting government worries about the fragility of the export-led recovery.

Forex market players would be keen to see if a new finance chief shifted to more aggressive jawboning when confronted with a sudden rise in the yen. But picking a level for intervention would still be tough no matter who holds the portfolio, and probably depends on the pace of moves as much as absolute levels.

HOW MUCH DOES EXPERIENCE MATTER?

A big reason Fujii got the finance post was because he was one of the few Democratic lawmakers with experience as a cabinet minister, having held the finance portfolio from 1993-1994.

Picking a successor would be difficult, given the need for a veteran politician to help balance conflicting priorities.

But Fujii himself got off to a rocky start with financial markets, initially sending messages interpreted as favouring a stronger yen and then raising the threat of intervention.

Some critics see the septuagenarian Fujii as a out of touch with global trends and with many analysts at best lukewarm about government economic policies, a fresh face might be welcomed.

WHO MIGHT TAKE THE JOB?

Deputy Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, 52, a relative fiscal hawk who worries about Japan's big debt, might get promoted.

The other deputy finance minister, upper house member Naoki Minezaki, 65, is also a possibility, but holders of the key portfolio traditionally come from the more powerful lower house.

Minezaki has said Japanese firms should get strong enough to cope with a strong yen rather than rely on a weak currency.

Other cabinet members -- Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada, Trade Minister Masayuki Naoshima, and National Strategy Minister Naoto Kan -- had been mentioned as possible finance ministers before Hatoyama formed his cabinet in September.

But Okada, 56, a policy maven and fiscal hawk with a "Mr Clean" image, has his hands full with frayed U.S.-Japan ties.

Kan, 63, an ex-health minister and champion of reducing bureaucrats' policy clout, lacks budget and tax expertise, although he has brushed up on macro policies in his new post.

Naoshima, 64, is an ex-union official and upper house lawmaker who has policy expertise from a stint as party policy chief. He blotted his copybook as minister in November when he leaked market-sensitive GDP data in a speech.

Eisuke Sakakibara, once known as "Mr Yen" for spearheading currency intervention as top finance official in the 1990s, could be a dark horse candidate, as could Toyoo Gyohten, who served as director general of the finance ministry's international bureau at the time of the Plaza Accord to weaken the dollar in 1985. (Additional reporting by Leika Kihara, Stanley White and Yoko Nishikawa; Editing by Jeremy Laurence and Edwina Gibbs)

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