By Tomasz Janowski
TOKYO, March 24 (Reuters) - Japan faces a mammoth disaster relief and reconstruction effort after a powerful earthquake and tsunami devastated the country's northeast, leaving more than 25,000 dead or missing and triggering a nuclear crisis.
The government, which has been juggling relief work with a race to avert a catastrophic meltdown at a crippled nuclear plant, has yet to decide how much it will spend for its biggest rebuilding effort since the post-World War Two reconstruction.
The following are questions and answers about the fiscal strain of the relief and reconstruction effort and its possible market implications.
WHAT IS THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE?
The government's first estimate released on Wednesday puts the damage to roads, homes, factories and other infrastructure at around $200-310 billion, or up to 6 percent of Japan's GDP, making it the world's costliest natural disaster.
In addition, there are harder-to-gauge losses in economic activity from planned power outages or the broader impact of the nuclear crisis.
HOW MUCH WILL THE GOVERNMENT SPEND?
Much of the cost will be borne by households and companies, though the government is likely to take the lion's share, paying for relief efforts and reconstruction of the worst-hit areas, soft loans and tax breaks for businesses hit by the disaster and capital injections for banks in the area.
Lawmakers are talking of extra budgets totalling between 5 and 10 trillion yen ($124 billion) in addition to a regular 92 trillion yen budget.
WHERE WILL THE MONEY COME FROM?
Immediate rescue and relief efforts have been financed by emergency reserves in this fiscal year's budget and those in the next budget that takes force on April 1 will be used too. Later, at least two, maybe more, additional emergency budgets will be needed, ruling party officials say. The first would focus on urgent needs and could be financed largely by savings in the main budget.
The ruling Democratic party lawmakers have suggested dropping some of their spending plans to save about 220 billion yen and the opposition has called for cuts of up to 3.6 trillion yen. Still, much of the funding will have to be covered by borrowing, though there are other options. An idea of a special relief tax has been floated, though so far the government has dismissed it. In the longer-term, Japan could also tap some of its $1 trillion foreign reserves.
CAN JAPAN BORROW MUCH MORE?
Despite a ballooning debt of twice the size of its $5 trillion economy and some doomsday predictions of a fiscal meltdown, Japan has had so far little difficulty borrowing at rates just above 1 percent , below rates of over 3 percent paid on 10-year U.S. and German government debt.
Japan's vast pool of domestic savings, well in excess of the size of the debt, and the fact that it sells 95 percent of its bonds at home help explain the paradox.
Moody's ratings agency said on Monday Japan had the credit and fiscal means to deal with the disaster, even though risks to the economy have increased since the March 11 disaster.
Economists warn that in the long-run a declining savings rate of a rapidly ageing population will leave Tokyo relying more on fickle foreign investors, but say such a tipping point is probably several years, if not decades, away.
CAN JAPAN AVOID HIGHER BORROWING COSTS?
A debt crisis similar to one engulfing the euro zone periphery seems a distant possibility now. But some analysts say selling by nervous foreigners and Japanese investors needing cash to deal with the destruction could still push up bond yields enough to cause policymakers a headache.
Therefore, the government may look for other ways to borrow rather than just ramp up bond sales. One option suggested by media and rejected off hand by policymakers, would be for the Bank of Japan to underwrite a large issue of disaster bonds.
A more palatable solution for the central bank would be to increase bond purchases from the market to limit the impact of increased supply.
Yet another option would be for public or semi-public financial institutions to take up special reconstruction bonds. A credit line from a multinational institution such as the IMF or World Bank, though not discussed so far, could also be a possibility.
Finally, some economists are suggesting that Japan could use part of its foreign reserves to create a sovereign wealth fund to finance long-term reconstruction. This, however, is the most far-fetched option as it would require significant changes to law to make it possible.
HOW SOON CAN AN EMERGENCY BUDGET BE PASSED?
Democratic party secretary-general Katsuya Okada said this week the first emergency budget could be released in April or May. Savings that are made to finance it could also help win opposition support needed to pass a key bill that allows the government to issue new bonds needed to finance the regular budget and emergency packages. Before the disaster, the opposition was blocking this and other bills to force the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Naoto Kan to call a snap election, but the crisis has raised chances that the impasse will end. ($1 = 80.930 Japanese Yen) (Additional reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Kim Coghill)