🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

PREVIEW-UK inflation set to fall below BoE target in June

Published 07/13/2009, 08:27 AM
Updated 07/13/2009, 08:48 AM
C
-
BNPP
-
TGT
-

* What: UK consumer price index for June

* When: Tuesday, July 14 at 0830 GMT

* CPI seen falling to 1.8 pct, lowest since Sept 07

By Christina Fincher

LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - Inflation looks set to fall below the Bank of England's target for the first time in almost two years in June due to falling energy costs and favourable base effects.

Despite the sharpest economic contraction in more than 50 years, inflation has been slower to fall in Britain than in many of its trading partners, largely because of the pound's sharp drop on the foreign exchanges.

Consumer price inflation has been above the central bank's 2 percent target since October 2007, peaking at a series high of 5.2 percent last September.

"We expect further deceleration in June, continuing the delayed reaction to falling food and commodity indices," said Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas.

The median of economists polled by Reuters is for annual CPI inflation to fall to 1.8 percent in June from 2.2 percent in May. [ECONGB]. Annual retail price inflation, a broader measure which includes mortgage costs, is forecast to fall to -1.5 percent from -1.1 percent.

Downward pressure is likely to come from food, where the rate of increase is likely to be considerably smaller than the 2 percent jump seen in the same month last year. Utility bills and air fares are also likely to have had a dampening impact.

Petrol prices rose around 5 percent last month, similar to June 2008, implying little impact on the annual rate.

The outlook for inflation over the next two years will be key to the central bank's decision on whether to extend its asset purchase scheme and when to raise interest rates from their record low.

British factory gate inflation fell in June at its fastest rate in more than seven years, suggesting consumer price inflation will continue its downward trajectory.

However, a prolonged period of record-low interest rates combined with the BoE's policy of pumping money into the economy could revive not just growth but also price pressures over the longer term.

Some analysts think the threat of deflation is overblown.

Michael Saunders, an economist at Citigroup, predicts consumer price inflation will trough at around 1 percent in September and says there is little risk Britain will experience the negative CPI rates seen in the United States and Japan.

"CPI inflation has only fallen below target because of the massive recession, collapse in oil prices and sharp cut in VAT -- none of which the MPC had expected a year ago," he notes. (Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.