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PREVIEW-UK's Darling to issue gloomiest budget in generation

Published 04/20/2009, 09:27 AM
Updated 04/20/2009, 09:56 AM

(Refiles to add dropped words "to as" in paragraph 7)

* UK annual budget to take place on April 22 at 1130 GMT

* Darling expected to say economy will shrink by 3-3.5 pct

* Budget deficit to soar to around 160 billion pounds, gilt

issuance to hit record high

By Sumeet Desai

LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - British finance minister Alistair Darling looks set to ramp up public borrowing to at least 160 billion pounds this year as he admits the economy will shrink at its fastest pace in over 60 years.

With an election due by June 2010 and the ruling Labour Party far behind in the polls, Darling's second annual budget on Wednesday will stress recovery should come by year-end and will surely contain some headline-grabbing sweeteners.

"We've got to plan for the future, to invest in Britain's future to ensure that we can take advantage of the recovery when it comes, and it will come," Darling said in a video clip posted on the Treasury's website.

That won't hide the bad news. Darling will likely forecast an economic contraction of 3-3.5 percent in 2009 and the budget deficit hitting a post-war record of perhaps 12 percent of GDP as Britain suffers its first recession since the early 1990s.

His budget statement, likely to be the gloomiest in a generation, will also come just hours after new figures are expected to show another 120,000 people signed on for unemployment benefits last month.

The dire state of the public finances, however, means that the government can't splash out in the way it did in the November pre-budget report which contained a 20 billion pound package fiscal stimulus package, including a cut in sales tax.

Darling is also expected to outline an estimate for the price of bailing out Britain's banks during the financial crisis. This could run to as much as 60 billion pounds which the government does not expect to recoup, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

Still, government sources told Reuters at the weekend that Darling would likely put 2 billion pounds into schemes aimed at getting people, particularly the young, back to work and another 500 million pounds into environmental initiatives.

The political imperative of an election means that further significant crowd-pleasing initiatives may also be in the pipeline.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown desperately needs to regain the initiative after a scandal over emails sent by one of his aides have dominated headlines for more than a week.

TIGHTENING AHEAD

Whatever the cost of those measures, markets are already braced for a record amount of government bond issuance. A Reuters poll of market-makers showed they expected on average 180 billion pounds of gilts to be issued in 2009/10.

With such a huge funding gap and the memory of last month's failed gilt auction still in mind, Darling will also be keen to show that the public finances will get back to a more sustainable path in the years ahead.

So expect talk of more efficiency savings of perhaps 10 billion pounds and warnings that spending growth will have to be curtailed savagely once the recession is over.

There are also likely to be further measures to crack down on tax avoidance, such as naming and shaming of persistent offenders.

The government has already announced a new higher tax rate for people earnings over 150,000 pounds from 2011.

Further tightening measures may also be flagged up to instill market confidence and also entrap the opposition Conservatives who will either have to go along with the tax hikes or say where they will find the shortfall.

Officials are still debating over whether or not to go ahead with a scrappage scheme to benefit the motor industry where consumers buying new cars would be given rebates for old ones.

That could be one of a host of micro-measures designed to alleviate the effects of the recession and there has also been talk of measures to help savers who are being hurt by the Bank of England cutting interest rates to a record low. For a factbox on expected budget measures, click [ID:nLK664976]

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