* Q3 net seen at 274 million lira
* Sales expected to rise 16 percent
* Results may come on Wednesday
By Ayla Jean Yackley
ISTANBUL, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Net income at Turkish Airlines , Europe's fourth-largest carrier, is seen down 33 percent in the third quarter after revenues took a hit from lower airfares and the value of its planes fell in dollar terms.
Consolidated net income probably declined to 274 million lira ($186 million) on sales of 2.09 billion lira, according to the average forecast in a Reuters poll of 11 analysts. Sales were 1.8 billion lira in the same period a year ago.
The euro gained 4.3 percent against the dollar from July to September, which may undermine Turkish Airlines' fleet valuation, calculated in dollars. The rise in petrol prices in the third quarter will also curb further gains.
"Even as operating profit improved, net profit will likely fall due to FX losses," said Hakan Deprem, an analyst at Finans Invest. "Lower fares may also be a factor."
The carrier lowered prices to compete with its European peers as overall demand in the travel sector slumped during the global recession. Airlines like Lufthansa and Air France slashed rates between 20 and 25 percent in the period.
The number of people traveling on Turkey's flag carrier jumped 16 percent in September, bringing the nine-month year-on-year rise to 10 percent, the company said on Oct 18.
The euro's gains against the dollar also lifted revenue, because a large portion of the airline's income, such as tickets, is denominated in euros, while oil is in dollars and other expenditures are in lira, said Cemal Demirtas, an analyst at Oyak Securities in Istanbul. The Istanbul-based airline is expected to earn 376 million lira in the first nine months of the year. The figure was calculated by adding its previously announced six-month profit to the forecast.
The stock has more than quadrupled this year, sharply outperforming the benchmark index's 78 percent gain. Of the 14 analysts covering Turkish Airlines, seven rate it "buy", one "outperform", four "hold" and two "underperform".
Following is a summary of analysts' forecasts, with figures in millions of lira:
Mean Median Range Previous Revenue 2089 2060 1985-2311 1802 EBITDA 496 485 336-704 N/A EBITDAR 623 592 459-922 N/A Net profit 274 253 69-380 412
Forecasts were provided by Deutsche Bank, Eczacibasi Securities, Ekspres Invest, Garanti Securities, Gedik Investment Securities, Global Securities, ING Bank, KBC Securities, Oyak Securities, UniCredit and Yatirim Finansman. ($1=1.47) (Reporting by Ayla Jean Yackley; editing by Simon Jessop)