WHAT: July customs-based exports, imports, trade balance
WHEN: Thursday, Aug. 19, around 2 p.m. (0700 GMT)
REUTERS FORECASTS:
(Pct change on year unless stated) NO. OF
MEDIAN RANGE PRIOR FORECASTS Exports +36.9 +35.0/+40.1 +46.3 10 Imports +32.1 +21.7+35.2 +37.9 10 Trade bal +$1.58 bln +$1.17/+$2.77 bln +$2.3 bln 10
FACTORS TO WATCH:
- Exports probably increased 36.9 percent in July from a year before, growing for the ninth straight month, according to the poll, after June's rise of 46.3 percent.
The expected slower growth is probably due to the base effect in comparison with last year. Global demand improved around the middle of last year, after plunging during the global crisis.
- Exports have been little affected by euro zone debt problems; the euro zone took 9.7 percent of Thai goods in June, up from 9.3 percent in May.
- Imports probably increased 32.1 percent in July from a year before, the lowest since December, after June's 37.9 percent. Import growth is also good for exports as many imports are used to make re-exported goods.
MARKET IMPACT:
- A stronger-than-expected increase in exports and imports
would show Thailand's economic recovery is being sustained and
further support the baht
- If the trade data is sharply weaker than expected, the central bank may be more reluctant to raise interest rates in coming months and that could lift bond prices.
- The central bank lifted its key policy rate last month by a quarter point to 1.50 percent, the first increase since the global downturn, saying inflationary pressure had increased as the economy rebounds. [ID:nSGE65103A].
- Economists expect another quarter-point rise next week and see the rate standing at 2.0 percent by year-end.
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Poll details (pct change from year earlier unless stated)
Exports Imports Trade balance
($ mln)
Trinity Securities 40.1 35.2 1,590 HSBC 38.0 31.0 1,800 Forecast 37.9 30.0 1,938 Tisco Securities 37.2 34.5 1,297
ING 37.0 32.0 1,577 Kasikorn Research 36.7 32.1 1,700
Stanchart 36.4 34.4 1,322 CIMB 36.0 34.0 1,172 Capital Nomura 35.8 21.7 2,770 Action Economics 35.0 30.0 1,500 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEDIAN 36.9 32.1 1,584 ---------------------------------------------------------- ($1=31.70 baht) (Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Chinthathip Nanthavong; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)