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PREVIEW-Solvay Q1 profit seen hit by plastics unit loss

Published 05/08/2009, 07:56 AM
Updated 05/08/2009, 08:08 AM
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* Solvay Q1 results

* Tuesday May 12, 1100 GMT

* REBIT seen at 126 million euros

By Aaron Gray-Block

AMSTERDAM, May 8 (Reuters) - The first-quarter profits of Belgian drugs, chemicals and plastics maker Solvay are expected to continue a sharp fall seen at the end of 2008, but investors will watch underlying developments to gauge coming quarters.

Solvay often provides an outlook at its first-quarter results, but analysts do not expect a quantified guidance next week, due to a lack of visibility, and will also closely watch pricing and volume developments.

"The message will be in the details," Petercam analyst Jan van den Bossche said.

Any outlook Solvay might give will reflect the fall in profits, with the company seen reporting a 58 percent fall in recurring earnings before interest and tax (REBIT) to 126 million euros ($169 million), according to the average forecast from a Reuters poll of 10 analysts.

A year earlier, the company reported 300 million euros in quarterly profit.

KBC analyst Wim Host said he does not expect a change in the trend seen in the last quarter of 2008, adding it is clear the automotive and construction sectors are still under pressure.

Solvay, one of very few drug-chemicals hybrids left, said in April it is reviewing all options for its pharmaceuticals unit and many analysts expect the company to divest the business, but it is unlikely any announcements will be made next week.

"We believe strategic news flow on the pharma division is probably the major share price driver going forward and we do not expect any news to be announced," at the first-quarter results, KBC's Hoste said in a note.

The pharmaceuticals unit is expected to again show resilient earnings amid the economic downturn, with the average forecast indicating an 8 percent decline in REBIT, while the chemicals unit is expected to show a 58 percent fall in operating profit.

But Solvay's plastics division, one of the world's leading producers of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) used in the construction industry, will take the biggest hit from the economic crunch.

A significant decline in volumes at the division is expected to lead to a loss for the quarter, its second in succession.

Plunging demand in the automotive, electrical and construction industries has hit profits hard at chemical firms globally, but there are positive signs, with Akzo Nobel saying last month it was seeing some stabilisation.

Solvay shares have risen 28 percent since its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 19, compared with a 9.7 percent rise in the DJ Stoxx European Chemical index. ($1=.7462 Euro) (Editing by Rupert Winchester)

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