WHAT: Bank of Korea interest rate decision
WHEN: May 12, decision at around 0100 GMT, news conference from 0220 GMT
REUTERS FORECASTS:
- All of 22 analysts polled see the Bank of Korea holding its benchmark interest rate steady at a record-low 2.00 percent for a 15th consecutive month. The rate was cut by 325 basis points over four months until February 2009.
- Nineteen predict a rate increase in the second half of the year -- 10 in the third quarter and eight in the fourth quarter while one was undecided. Two see a rise as early as June while one expects a hike in the first quarter of 2011.
- In the last Reuters poll conducted soon after the central bank's news conference on April 9, 16 out of 17 analysts saw a raise in the second half or early next year, while one predicted an increase in the first half.
By Cheon Jong-woo
SEOUL, May 10 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank looks certain to start raising interest rates in the second half, although the timing could be delayed if the euro zone debt crisis deteriorates while local inflation stays tame.
Last month, strong economic data had bolstered the case for an early interest rate increase but lingering concerns about the global fallout from the euro zone's debt crisis is playing an offsetting role, analysts said.
On Monday, the European Union agreed on a 500 billion-euro emergency fund to protect highly indebted euro zone countries from the "wolfpack" of financial markets, but analysts remained sceptical it was over.
Reflecting the changing views, June treasury bond futures have rebounded to 111.22 from 110.54 on April 14 when the government provided a strong outlook on employment.
South Korea's annual consumer inflation rate is gathering some steam but is still below the middle point of the central bank's target band of 2-4 percent.
Last month, the Bank of Korea reinforced the market's view that it would keep interest rates until the U.S. or Chinese central banks begin to lift their rates.
Analysts had priced in an imminent interest rate increase late last year after former Governor Lee Seong-tae warned of mounting asset price bubbles, but have since kept pushing back the timing for a raise in line with his changes in rhetoric.
Here are some possible outcomes from the Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee meeting and subsequent news conference by Governor Kim Choong-soo, and the expected market reaction:
FLAGS NO IMMINENT RAISE
Governor Kim will most likely maintain dovish signals that the central bank will hold interest rates steady for a while by emphasising that the global economy is faced with more risks from the debt crisis in Europe.
Kim is also expected to indicate that the country still needs to maintain easier policy because inflationary pressure is not rising high enough to pose an immediate threat.
* Probability: very high (more than 90 percent, or 20 of the 22 analysts polled)
* Market reaction: Bond and stock prices will likely rise but gains will be limited because investors have already priced in little chance of a rate rise in the first half.
FLAGS RISE IN NEAR TERM
There still is a slim chance of Kim sending signals of a near-term rate hike, given the healthy economic data, and by showing his support for his predecessor's long-held view that keeping interest rates too low for a long time is not desirable.
Earlier this month, data showed inflation and manufacturing activity picked up in April. Exports value per working day last month hit a 19-month high and March industrial output rose by double the pace analysts had expected.
Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun also said last week there were a lot of problems attached to keeping rates low, which some analysts took as an early hint that he was not quite so opposed to a rate increase.
* Probability: very low (2 out of the 22 analysts in the poll).
* Market reaction: Bond and stock prices will likely fall sharply while the won will gain as the unexpectedly hawkish comments from the dovish-looking governor will prompt investors to rush to rebuild bets on an early tightening. (Additional reporting by Chang Tae-min; Editing by Yoo Choonsik)