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PREVIEW-Norway set for Europe's first post-crisis rate rise

Published 10/27/2009, 10:08 AM
Updated 10/27/2009, 10:15 AM
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* Norges Bank rates decision due at 1300 GMT Wednesday

* Analysts in Reuters poll unanimous on 25 bp rate rise

* Economy recovering faster than expected after stimulus

* C.bank rate projections to clarify pace of tightening

By Wojciech Moskwa and Camilla Bergsli

OSLO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Oil-rich Norway is set to become the first European country to increase official borrowing costs, with Norges Bank tipped to lift its deposit rate by a quarter point from a record low of 1.25 percent on Wednesday.

Emerging from a mild recession in the second quarter, the world's No. 5 oil exporter and Europe's second biggest natural gas producer has recovered from the global downturn faster than anticipated due to massive monetary and fiscal policy stimulus.

All 10 economists polled by Reuters last week expected the central bank to raise rates for the first time in over a year on Wednesday to help offset the impact from fiscal stimulus, which amounted to more than 4 percent of gross domestic product in 2009 and will be of a similar scale next year. [ID:nLK376134]

But the scope and speed of tightening remains unclear, with the Reuters survey showing forecasts for end-2010 rates varying widely between 2.00 and 3.50 percent.

Analysts will focus on the three-times-per-year monetary policy report, published along with the rate decision, to get a better sense of how Norges Bank sees rates moving going forward.

"The market has already priced in an upward revision to the rate trajectory," said Bjoern Roger Wilhelmsen, an economist at First Securities. "We expect the revision to be smaller and think market rates and the crown will weaken tomorrow."

The crown traded steady around 8.36 against the euro on Tuesday, having strengthened 2 percent from the last rate meeting on Sept. 23, when Norges Bank held rates. The currency has appreciated 8 percent from early July lows.

RECOVERY IN STORE

Norway's non-oil economy grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter, exiting a six-month recession. Latest government projections show non-oil GDP rising 2.1 percent next year, stoked by consumer demand which has rejuvenated retail sales.

"Sales hit rock bottom in the spring," Lars Kristian Henriksen, manager of a Datakjeden computer store in central Oslo, told Reuters. "The summer is normally a slow period for us but things have picked up well since mid-August."

Henriksen, whose shop has an annual turnover of about $10 million, said average purchase sizes have dropped from pre-crisis levels but top-shelf merchandise still sells.

Analysts will also watch whether Norges Bank will place more emphasis on recovery items or sectors which remain sluggish.

"It will be interesting to see how much weight they put on growing household demand compared to other sectors that are not going as well, such as export industries and construction," said Wilhelmsen.

Norges Bank slashed interest rates by 4.5 percentage points between October 2008 and June this year. (Editing by Mike Peacock)

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