PREVIEW-Euro zone inflation seen steady at 1.8 pct in Oct

Published 10/22/2010, 09:45 AM
Updated 10/22/2010, 09:48 AM

WHAT: Euro zone flash inflation for October WHEN: Friday, October 29 at 0900 GMT

CONSENSUS FORECAST: Inflation at 1.8 percent

FACTORS TO WATCH:

Euro zone inflation likely held steady just below the European Central Bank's target in October as energy prices have peaked, data is expected to show on October 29.

The 1.8 percent median forecast in a Reuters poll of 36 analysts is in line with September's number. Forecasts range from 1.7 percent to 1.9 percent.

"Energy inflation is expected to peak in October but will continue to make a significant contribution to the annual rate because of a growing contribution from gas prices," HSBC said in a research note.

Oil prices remain well below record highs set in 2008 and are virtually in line with this time last year at around $81 per barrel.

On Wednesday Germany, Europe's biggest economy, is expected to say harmonised prices rose 1.3 percent year-on-year in October. Italy is seen saying on Oct. 29 its harmonised prices rose 1.7 percent this month.

The ECB is seen leaving interest rates at record lows of 1.0 percent when it meets next month and for at least another year as it fights to maintain growth and prevent the 16-nation bloc from slipping back into recession. [ECILT/EU]

Data due on Friday is expected to show unemployment in the bloc held relatively steady at 10.1 percent in September.

MARKET IMPACT

An above consensus reading on inflation could spark speculation that the ECB will start tightening policy sooner than expected.

A lower reading would suggest the economy's weakness is preventing firms from raising prices and could fuel expectations that monetary policy will remain loose, giving a boost to fixed-income assets but hitting the euro.

(For full weekly euro zone forecasts see [ECI/EURO])

(Reporting by Jonathan Cable, polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by John Stonestreet)

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