(Corrects HSBC exports and imports forecasts)
WHAT: Chinese trade data for September
WHEN: Wednesday, Oct 13; no fixed time
REUTERS FORECAST:
(Exports and imports in pct chg y/y, trade balance in $bln)
POLL
MEDIAN RANGE AUG/10 SEP/09 SIZE Exports 25.1 20.0/33.0 34.4 -15.2 22 Imports 22.8 15.0/30.0 35.2 -3.5 22 Trade balance 19.0 14.8/24.0 20.0 12.9 21
* FACTORS TO WATCH
All eyes will be on imports after a surprisingly strong jump in August showed domestic demand was recovering after a second-quarter swoon. A relapse in imports could raise fresh doubts. If any weakness was concentrated in imports of raw materials and electronic components for processing into exports, it could portend softness in global demand.
* MARKET IMPACT
Traders will be on alert for the political impact of the data as much as the market impact. Another big trade surplus would be par for the course, especially as seasonal factors typically boost exports in the final months of the year.
But a fifth consecutive monthly surplus of around $20 billion would be grist to the mill of U.S. lawmakers who want to punish China for what they say is an unfairly undervalued exchange rate.
Breakdown of forecasts:
Trade balance Exports Imports ANZ 21.3 28.6 24.1 BNP Paribas 19.0 26.8 24.3 BOC International 17.4 21.2 19.5 Bocom International 16.0 25.0 25.0 CCB International 21.5 22.6 17.0 CCIEE 19.0 28.0 30.0 CEBM 24.0 25.0 17.0 CICC ~ 25.5 22.0 CITIC Securities 20.6 23.8 18.9 Donghai Securities 18.0 26.5 25.0 Everbright Securities 23.1 26.7 23.2 Forecast Pte 20.2 21.3 16.9 Fortune Trust 17.0 22.5 21.0 Guotai Junan 22.1 28.2 22.5 HSBC 17.5 27.0 26.0 Industrial Bank 17.5 24.4 23.1 Industrial Securities 14.8 20.8 21.6 Minsheng Securities 20.0 20.0 15.0 Pingan Securities 18.0 33.0 33.0 Qilu Securities 23.5 26.0 19.0 Royal Bank of Scotland 17.0 24.9 23.7 Shanghai Securities 18.0 25.1 23.2 ~ not available
* For China's August trade data, click [ID:nBJB003936]
* China's indicator fixed page:
* All Chinese economic data:
* For a preview of loans data, click [ID:nTOE68T036] (Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Alan Wheatley)