* For poll data see * Significant gains expected by end 2010
* Emerging markets to lead the way
* Very small number say any market to end 2010 lower
By Ross Finley
LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - An explosive rally in world stock markets this year from multi-year lows in March has lost some momentum but most major indexes will rise further by end-2010, according to a Reuters poll of more than 200 strategists.
The quarterly outlook on world stock markets found most analysts remaining optimistic, with only a small minority looking for indexes to trade lower than where they are now by the end of next year.
But that does not mean it will be a straight path. Developed markets may be near the top of a range while emerging markets and indexes more exposed to trade with them like the Hang Seng and Russia's RTS appear to have more potential to rise.
Several equity strategists and fund managers have alluded to the great uncertainty over how soon central banks will start turning off the liquidity taps, one of the main drivers of such a historic run-up in asset prices over the past nine months.
When that liquidity dries up, the market fever may cool.
Central banks slashed interest rates to record lows and many of them have been providing unlimited amounts of cash to the financial system, some of which has found its way into share prices given the paltry returns on money.
"We don't believe we have entered a multi-year cyclical bull market for developed equity markets," noted Morgan Stanley strategist Jason Todd in their 2010 outlook. "We think equities remain in a broad range-trading environment."
But the gains expected for next year would be remarkable if realised, given the already historic rally from the March lows that have most indexes up by 50 percent or more and some, like Russia's RTS, up a ballistic 120 percent.
For a graphic please click on: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/129/GLB_10PL1209.gif
Consensus forecasts from the Reuters poll have the Russian market up 22 percent from current levels by end-2010, outperforming all others polled on except the Hang Seng, which is expected to climb 24 percent from current levels.
Brazil's Bovespa, up 80 percent this year, is on track for another 15 percent gain by December 2010, the poll concluded, while Mumbai's BSE Sensex, already up more than 70 percent this year, is expected to rise another 12 percent by end-2010.
But not everyone is buying into the optimism. Stocks have come a long way up around the world since March and are priced for a stronger recovery than the world economy may be able to deliver after the worst recession in 80 years.
"All the growth projections for the first half of 2010 might be a bit too aggressive and I think there might be disappointment," said Francis Campeau, broker at MF Global Canada, in Montreal.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY VIEW UNDERPINS 2010
Optimism about the U.S. market is underpinned by expected robust growth next year, at least compared with Europe. A recent Reuters poll showed the U.S. outperforming the euro zone by a wide margin.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index, already up by two-thirds from the lows carved in March, is set for a 9 percent rise from here to the end of 2010. Gains in the Dow Jones industrials are expected to be a more muted 6 percent.
The change in tone among analysts from a year ago is remarkable, when trading desks around the world were shaken by the worst financial crisis since the crash of 1929.
Yet that poll was surprisingly accurate -- the consensus was for the S&P 500 to end 2009 at 1,000 points, a prediction made before the intensity of the selling on world markets picked up until March. Since then the economic outlook has improved and most countries have pulled out of recession.
"Most of the economic numbers still point to sustained growth going into 2010," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York.
Shares in Australia, which managed to skirt the Great Recession that gripped the globe in 2008/09, are seen gaining 18 percent by end-2010. They are seen underpinned by global demand for commodities in an economy growing quickly enough that the central bank has already raised rates several times.
(For poll data click on)
(For other stories from the poll, click on)
(Polling by the Bangalore Polling Unit and correspondents in Reuters bureaux in New York, Toronto, Sao Paulo, London, Paris, Frankfurt, Milan, Moscow, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Taipei, Sydney; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)