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POLL-Stimulus to boost China's Jan-April investment

Published 05/07/2009, 05:33 AM
Updated 05/07/2009, 06:08 AM
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* What: China's urban fixed-asset investment for Jan-April

* When: Tuesday, May 12 at 0200 GMT

* Pace of spending quickens as government projects start up

BEIJING, May 7 (Reuters) - Fixed-asset investment, the key driver of Chinese growth in recent years, probably gathered even more momentum in April as the government broke ground on projects around the country as part of its 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan.

Annual growth of fixed-asset investment (FAI) in urban areas in the January-April period accelerated to 29.1 percent from 28.6 percent in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of 30 economists polled by Reuters.

Mu Hong, a vice head of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's economic planning agency, said this week that Beijing has so far spent more than a third of the total it has promised to invest by the end of 2010. The central government is financing a third of the overall package.

"With the country entering the construction season in the second quarter, the results of the central government's investment will show through more clearly," Mu said. [ID:nPEK195574]

Wang Tao, an economist with UBS, said record bank lending in the first quarter would give a big push to government-related investments, entrenching the economic recovery.

"The strong FAI growth is expected to push Q2 growth above 14 percent quarter on quarter," Wang said in a note to clients. Forecasts (year to date; percentage change from a year earlier): Institution Urban FAI China Securities 31.8 Shenyin & Wanguo Securities 30.6 Bank of China 30.5 Citibank 30.0 Guotai Junan Securities 30.0 Qilu Securities 30.0 UBS 29.8 Bohai Securities 29.7 Essence Securities 29.5 Morgan Stanley 29.5 Southwest Securities 29.5 DBS 29.3 China Galaxy Securities 29.2 Moody's economy.com 29.2 SJS Markets 29.2 BNP Paribas 29.0 Merrill Lynch 29.0 Nomura 29.0 Hang Seng 29.0 HSBC 29.0 CITIC Securities 28.9 CICC 28.8 Industrial Bank 28.8 Daiwa Institute of Research 28.8 ING 28.7 Orient Securities 28.5 Fortune Trust 28.5 China Merchants Securities 28.0 Shanghai Securities 28.0 China Jianyin Investment Securities 26.0 ___________________________________________________ Median 29.1 Previous month 28.6 Year earlier 25.7 > For a poll on all April data, click on [ID:nPEK362735] > For historical data, double click on [ID:nPEK142767] > For the China indicators fixed page, double-click on (Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Alan Wheatley)

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