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POLL-Sterling to gain some ground as BoE tightens

Published 01/05/2011, 09:15 AM
Updated 01/05/2011, 09:20 AM

* Sterling seen steady vs dollar, to strengthen in H2

* Pound to make steady gains on euro

* Cable seen at $1.58 in 12 months

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters) - The pound will coast for six months but end 2011 a little higher than where it started the year as the Bank of England begins to unwind its ultra-loose monetary policy in the second half, a Reuters poll found.

Median forecasts from the poll of over 50 analysts, taken over the past week saw cable at $1.55 in a month and then nudging up to $1.58 in a year, a little weaker than in December's poll.

The pound was trading around $1.56 on Wednesday and is seen at $1.55 in six months time.

"As the BoE will not follow the Fed in another round of asset purchases and should gradually start hiking rates in late 2011, while the Fed will remain on hold, cable should enjoy a sizeable rebound in H2," said Roberto Mialich at UniCredit.

Mialich was the second most accurate forecaster in Reuters FX polls last year, having topped the league in 2008.

A Reuters poll published last month predicted the BoE would begin raising rates from October whereas the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has bought trillions of dollars worth of bonds to bolster the world's biggest economy, will be more cautious.

But 12-month forecasts were fairly wide, ranging from $1.36 to $1.83, suggesting uncertainty remains and the pound slipped to a three-month low late last month after a downward revision in UK economic growth reminded investors the country's recovery remains fragile.

The Office for National Statistics Office revised down third quarter growth to 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent and said growth in the first two quarters of the year was also slightly weaker than previously reported.

A Reuters poll taken last month suggests growth will slow further, averaging between 0.3 and 0.5 percent per quarter through this year.

"The underlying dynamics of the UK economy remain deeply worrying," said Dorothea Huttanus, Head of Foreign Exchange and Money Markets at DZ Bank and the most accurate forecaster across last year's polls.

"Given that the coming 3-6 months are likely to bring a considerable amount of negative headlines from the UK, expect sterling to continue weaker from here onwards."

EURO POUNDING

Against the euro the pound was expected to gain strength as the common currency faces its own headwinds.

The euro was seen worth 85.0 pence in a month, 83.3p in six and 82.5p in a year, compared to respective 84.2p, 84.4p and 83.0p forecasts in last month's poll.

The bloc, which expanded to 17 members when Estonia joined on Jan. 1, has struggled to escape from its deepest post-war recession and concerns about the fiscal strength of periphery members battered the currency in 2010.

The European Central Bank slashed interest rates to record lows and injected billions of euros into the money supply and is not seen hiking rates from 1.0 percent until early next year.

"Over the near term EUR may gain some support from increased support from the ECB in terms of peripheral debt purchases but weaker and divergent growth as well as ongoing debt tensions in the euro zone periphery point to further EUR weakness over coming months," said Mitul Kotecha at Calyon.

Sterling was seen less volatile against the dollar over the coming month. Analysts say the divergence of forecasts in Reuters currency polls offers a leading indicator of exchange rate volatility in the following month. (Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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