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POLL-Sterling set to edge higher vs dollar, euro

Published 04/06/2011, 09:15 AM
Updated 04/06/2011, 09:16 AM

* For poll data see or

* Sterling to creep higher vs dollar and euro over 12 months

* Interest rate differentials to give cable a boost

* Pound volatility seen similar to March, around 7.5 percent

By Andy Bruce

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Sterling will probably waver near current levels for the next few months before diverging interest rate policies around the world help push it higher against the dollar, a Reuters poll found.

The survey of over 60 foreign exchange analysts this week showed the pound trading near $1.61 over the next three months, before appreciating to $1.64 in a year's time -- slightly stronger than the $1.62 seen in last month's poll.

Sterling came within sight of a 14-month high on Wednesday, hovering near a two-week peak of $1.6354, although it later fell half a cent after data showed British industrial output suffered a shock fall in February.

With British economic data still looking temperamental, analysts looked to the country's expected interest rate profile as a firmer starting point for sterling forecasts.

The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates at a record low 0.5 percent on Thursday, although several analysts expect it to hike rates in May, with the consensus pointing to a third quarter hike.

That would in any case put the BoE several months ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve in starting a cycle of policy tightening, since most leading economists say the Fed will hold rates near zero throughout 2011.

At 4.4 percent in February, UK consumer price inflation was running more than double the BoE's target of 2 percent and it is unlikely to ease much over the course of this year. Economic growth is expected to remain weak.

"The policy dilemma the BoE is currently facing between inflation and growth is quite severe," said Roberto Mialich from UniCredit, historically one of the poll's most accurate contributors.

"Nonetheless, as the BoE is also expected to hike rates sometime later this year, widening interest rate differentials, in particular in relation to the USD, should still make a cable pullback above $1.70 feasible by late December-early 2012."

Forecasts for the 12-month timeframe ranged from $1.41 to $1.82.

Analysts retained forecasts for a gradual appreciation of sterling against the euro.

While the European Central Bank looks almost certain to pip the BoE to a first interest rate hike since the recession, the ongoing fiscal crisis afflicting the euro zone's periphery will depress sentiment for the common European currency.

The poll showed the euro staying at current levels near 87.7 pence in a month's time, before a slow depreciation to 87 pence in three months, 85.5 in six, and 84.1 pence in a year.

Judging from calculations derived from the standard deviations of the poll's forecasts, sterling should show a similar level of volatility this month -- around 7.5 percent -- as it did in March, when its actual volatility was 7.6 percent.

(For poll data click on)

(For poll results in a PDF)

(For other stories from the poll)

(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by John Stonestreet)

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