By Ikuko Kao
LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices are likely to average $56 a barrel this year, down by nearly half from last year's average and about $2 less than predicted just two weeks ago thanks to the deepening global economic recession.
The consensus forecast of 32 analysts in a Reuters survey, taken Jan. 5-7, showed U.S. crude would average $56.20 a barrel in 2009 and London's Brent crude $54.95, compared with $58.48 and $57.21 respectively in the previous poll in late-December.
Analysts have been forced to lower their oil price assumptions repeatedly since August -- just before the global financial crisis entered a more dangerous phase. International benchmark U.S. crude was valued at about $43 on Thursday from a peak above $147 in July.
Six analysts lowered their assumptions.
The forecast levels showed a slide from 2008 average prices of about $99.7 for U.S. crude and about $98.5 for Brent. When oil hit the July peaks, analysts expected U.S. oil to average nearly $116 in 2009.
"Oil remains a macroeconomic call for the next couple of years, because the macro environment will drive both oil fundamentals and financial flows," said Mike Wittner, Societe Generale's global head of oil research.
All analysts in the survey expected oil prices to rise in 2010 and 2011 along with an expected eventual recovery for the global economy. The consensus forecasts were on average about $73 for U.S. crude in 2010 and $86 in 2011.
Barclays Capital was based on the highest forecasts of an average $76 for U.S. crude in 2009. It is the only bank which forecasts an above $100 average for the next year.
The most modest forecaster was The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which put a 2009 average $36 for U.S. crude.
Goldman Sachs forecast a below mean average $45 for U.S. crude this year, unchanged form the December poll. The bank had one of the most bullish forecasts in the summer, expecting a 2009 average of $148.
SHORT TERM SUPPORT
In a short term, oil prices would be supported by the halt of Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine as due to the dispute over bills between Russia and the energy transit state.
Thursday's oil prices were a rebound from below $34 late December and Brent crude was trading at $3 higher than U.S. crude.
Edward Meir with MF Global, the only analyst who raised assumptions, forecast Brent would average at $1 premiums to U.S. crude for the first and second quarters due mainly to the Russia-Ukraine gas row.
The consensus forecasts were averages of $47.51 for Brent and $48.91 for U.S. crude in the first quarter.
Cold weather in Europe and U.S. Northeast, the world's top heating fuel market, and the export cuts by OPEC producers would also limit drops in oil prices in a short term, rather than the escalating Palestine-Israel violence in the Gaza strip in the Middle East, said Jan Stuart, economist with UBS.
Although the consensus forecasts showed U.S. crude and Brent would rise above $50 in the second quarter, UBS's Stuart were among some analysts expecting prices to fall further in the second quarter before bottoming out.
"Oil prices can take another dip as seasonal demand falls in April, and before the macro rights itself. The low point of our quarterly average forecasts is the second quarter," he said.
(Reporting by Ikuko Kao in London and Dinesh Mehta in Bangalore)