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By Mari Terawaki
TOKYO, March 5 (Reuters) - Capital expenditure figures issued on Thursday showed Japan's economy likely shrank by its most since 1974, a Reuters poll found, but a slide in inventories would limit the size of the plunge.
Revised figures next week will likely show gross domestic product fell 3.3 percent in the final quarter of 2008, the poll found, the same as an earlier government estimate.
The finance ministry survey showed that Japanese companies cut spending on plants and equipment by 17.3 percent from a year earlier, slightly worse than a median forecast for a 16.6 percent slide but economists also said this was offset by lower inventories.
Stockpiles of unsold goods fell 74.8 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter. Third-quarter figures had shown 40.3 percent growth.
"When you consider the lower inventories, the two factors offset each other," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist for Japan at Barclays Capital.
The decline in capital spending was the largest fall in comparable data going back to July-September 2002, although the fall was exaggerated by changes in accounting rules on leasing. Excluding investment by financial holding firms and leasing companies, capital spending fell 9.7 percent.
A decline in fourth-quarter GDP would follow a 0.6 percent contraction in the third quarter and a 0.9 percent decline in the second quarter, confirming that the world's second-largest economy remains mired in a recession. A widely-used definition of a recession is two straight quarters of contraction.
Following are economists' forecasts for revised GDP data due out on March 12: (*percentage-point contribution to GDP) ----------------------------------------------------------------- CAPEX INVENTORY* GDP GDP ANNUALISED ---------------------------------------------------------------- Median -5.0 0.2 -3.3 -12.7 High -3.7 0.5 -3.1 -11.8 Low -6.8 -0.1 -3.7 -13.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Daiwa SB Investments -3.7 n/a -3.1 -11.8 JP Morgan -4.3 -0.1 -3.1 -12.0 Barclays Capital -4.1 0.3 -3.2 -12.1 Mitsui Sumitomo AM -4.3 0.3 -3.2 -12.2 UFJ Research -4.5 0.3 -3.2 -12.3 Daiwa SMBC -4.8 0.3 -3.3 -12.4 BNP Paribas -5.5 0.5 -3.3 -12.4 Japan Research -4.7 0.3 -3.3 -12.4 Shinkinchukin Research-3.9 0.2 -3.3 -12.5 Informa Global Markets-4.1 0.2 -3.3 -12.7 Calyon -5.3 0.2 -3.3 -12.7 Norinchukin Research -5.5 0.3 -3.4 -12.8 Monex -5.9 n/a -3.4 -13.1 Daiwa Research -5.0 0.1 -3.5 -13.4 NLI Research -6.1 0.2 -3.5 -13.4 Mitsubishi Securities -6.0 0.3 -3.5 -13.4 Deutsche Securities n/a n/a -3.5 -13.4 Dai-ichi Life Research-5.5 0.2 -3.5 -13.5 Mizuho Research -6.8 0.2 -3.6 -13.8 Mitsubishi Research -5.5 0.0 -3.7 -13.9 Morgan Stanley n/a n/a n/a -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------- (Writing by Stanley White; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)