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POLL-Japan investors stock index down, politics a worry

Published 12/21/2009, 10:38 PM
Updated 12/21/2009, 10:42 PM

* Key index falls to minus 62 in Dec, down 4 straight months

* Thumbs down on PM Hatoyama and banking minister Kamei

* Investors want government to tackle deflation, public debt

By Chikafumi Hodo and Mari Terawaki

TOKYO, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Japanese retail investor sentiment about domestic stocks fell to a nine-month low in December as deflation dogged the economy and doubts about the prime minister's leadership grew, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's government, in power for three months, scored only 47 out of 100 when individual investors were asked to rate its performance.

Hatoyama, the softspoken wealthy grandson of a premier, was ranked the second least effective member of the cabinet -- just behind outspoken banking minister Shizuka Kamei, who has pushed for spending to prop up the fragile economy despite huge public debt and upset investors with his anti-capitalist rhetoric.

"The Japanese economy will deteriorate under the Hatoyama government. In this kind of situation, nobody will want to invest in Japan," said one investor in his 40s.

The key sentiment index fell four points to minus 62 in December, also hurt by worries about potential large-scale equity financing. It was the fourth straight month of falls and the lowest reading since March, when the index dropped to minus 74.

The index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of investors who say they are bearish from those who are bullish.

The survey of 1,125 respondents was conducted on Dec 7-10, during which the Nikkei average slipped more than 2 percent to around 9,862, about the same level it was at the end of the previous month's survey.

The monthly poll, which is conducted anonymously, aims to capture the views of readers of an online magazine for users of the Reuters Japan Web site http://www.reuters.co.jp

POLICY PRESSURES

When asked what policy measures the government should prioritise, 21 percent said tackling deflation, while 17 percent said fiscal reform -- reflecting the conflicting pressures on Hatoyama's Democratic Party and its tiny coalition partners.

Investors also expressed worries that a rush of capital raising would lead to an oversupply of shares. Japanese firms have tapped equity markets for more than $50 billion this year for much-needed cash after the financial crisis.

Banks have been among the most active issuers of shares, eyeing stricter capital regulations. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is raising about 1 trillion yen this month, a record for sale of new shares by a Japanese company.

"We really can't be bullish due to potential supply and demand imbalances. We are going to see more capital raising through stock issuance," an investor in his 30s said.

Many bearish respondents blamed political uncertainty for the current sluggishness in the Japanese economy and share prices.

For a full table of the poll results see

Japan's economy grew at a far slower pace in the third quarter than first thought as capital spending fell, but exports rose by the most in seven years in November on signs of a pickup in demand from China, calming worries that the economy will slip back into recession next year.

"All the effect of stimulus measures taken by (the previous Prime Minister Taro) Aso was gone after the current government (took power). It took absolutely no fresh steps for several months to boost the economy," another respondent in his 40s said.

A separate Reuters poll on Tuesday showed Japanese manufacturers' confidence edged up in December on the back of exports but the mood in the service sector worsened as the recovery has not yet filtered through to domestic demand.

Investors -- like many voters -- are also worried about Hatoyama's apparent waffling on policy measures and the influence on policy exerted by banking minister Kamei and his tiny party.

Kamei, who heads the small People's New Party, was dubbed the most ineffective member of Hatoyama's cabinet, with 30.2 percent. He was followed by Hatoyama at 27.6 percent and Mizuho Fukushima, head of the tiny Social Democrats, with 12.8 percent.

Only 7.1 percent thought Hatoyama was effective.

"Hatoyama has been changing his comments from time to time. It's really difficult to tell where he wants to lead this country to with his policies," a company executive in his 50s said. (Additional reporting by Linda Sieg; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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