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POLL-Japan investor sentiment falls despite stock gains

Published 06/25/2009, 11:31 PM
Updated 06/25/2009, 11:56 PM
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* Key index falls 4 points to -20, first drop since March

* Sentiment about resource stocks positive 1st time in a year

* 57% expect "W"-shaped economic recovery, 8% see V-shaped

By Chikafumi Hodo and Mari Terawaki

TOKYO, June 26 (Reuters) - Japanese retail investor sentiment about domestic stocks worsened for the first time in three months in June due to concerns over Japan's economic outlook despite a rally in share prices, a Reuters survey showed.

The key sentiment index had improved dramatically in the previous two months on signs the worst of the credit crisis may be over, but investors remained pessimistic about the domestic economy as Japan struggles with its deepest postwar recession.

"I see the recent recovery in share prices as temporary. The market recovered largely due to adjustments after seeing sharp falls, while it will take several years for the economy to return to the level seen in 2006 and 2007," said an investor in his 20s.

The survey's investor sentiment index fell 4 points to minus 20 in June, after having risen to its highest level in nearly two years the previous month.

The index, which is calculated by subtracting the percentage of investors who say they are bearish from those who are bullish, had sunk to a record low of minus 74 in March.

(For a full table of the poll results, see)

The survey was conducted June 8-11, the final day of which the benchmark Nikkei share average broke above the closely watched 10,000 mark for the first time in eight months.

Investor sentiment towards resource stocks, such as steel and oil, improved to plus 4 in June from minus 10 the previous month, turning positive for the first time in a year amid stronger prices of oil and raw materials earlier in the month.

But sentiment towards the auto sector slumped by 10 points to minus 24.

Japan's exports continued to tumble in May, with even shipments to China showing little sign of improvement, suggesting that hopes for a quick recovery in global demand may be premature.

The survey, to which 1,048 people responded, also showed that most retail investors thought Japan's economic recovery would be limited, with only 8.3 percent of respondents saying they expected to a see a V-shaped recovery.

More than half of the respondents said the economy would show a "W"-shaped recovery, meaning the economy is expected to seesaw between growth and contraction.

A total of 21 percent said the economy would crawl at low levels or show an L-shaped recovery, while nearly 14 percent said the economy was expected to worsen again.

Nearly 70 percent of investors said the government needs to take measures to help improve the job market in order to remove uncertainty.

"Japan will not see a real economic recovery unless the government improves the labour situation. There is a lot of uncertainty about the future," said an investor in his 30s.

Japan's jobless rate rose in April to a 5-½ year high of 5.0 percent, and job availability slid to the lowest level in almost a decade.

"People are trying to protect themselves by spending as little as possible. We cannot be bullish about the outlook when we don't have any hopes for the future," said a respondent in his 70s.

The monthly poll, which is conducted anonymously, aims to capture the views of readers of an online magazine aimed at users of the Reuters Japanese website:

http://www.reuters.co.jp (Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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